ASTANA — Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Kazakhstan and his participation in the Central Asia-China summit mark a new phase of strategic engagement, encompassing a broader Central Asian region. Experts highlight both unprecedented opportunities and growing scrutiny in the region’s evolving partnerships.
Photo credit: Global Times /Akorda
In recent years, the Central Asia–China format has emerged as a flexible and pragmatic way for countries to work together, an alternative to traditional bilateral diplomacy. It underscores a rising sense of the region’s agency and shared development goals in Central Asia.
“Moving beyond traditional bilateralism, it enables Central Asian countries to engage with China collectively, enhancing their negotiating capacity and strategic visibility on the global stage,” Zhadyra Assetkyzy, senior expert at the Asian Studies Department of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS), told The Astana Times.
From bilateralism to regional strategy
President Xi’s 2013 visit to Astana introduced the Silk Road Economic Belt, the foundational pillar of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since then, Central Asia has played a pivotal role in advancing this vision, serving as both a corridor and collaborator in infrastructure, logistics, and trade.
In 2023, the first China-Central Asia Summit, held in Xi’an, formalized this engagement, institutionalizing a regular dialogue format among regional heads of state.
Gulnar Shaimergenova. Photo credit: Shaimergenova’s personal archives
According to Gulnar Shaimergenova, founder and director of the Kazakhstan-based China Studies Center, the Central Asia-China cooperation mechanism occupies a central place in the modern architecture of the region’s international relations. It serves as a new model of political engagement, focusing on long-term partnerships, mutual trust, and pragmatic development.
“Astana has become not only the geographical but also the political center of the format. It was here in 2013 that the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative was announced, laying the foundation for the BRI. Kazakhstan serves as a link between China and other external directions, setting the tone for regional interaction and initiating new forms of cooperation,” Shaimergenova told The Astana Times.
Institutional developments such as the establishment of the Central Asia-China secretariat, visa-free regimes, and educational exchanges have contributed to the stable growth of long-term cooperation. These mechanisms have advanced logistics along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, supported digital transformation, and fostered transboundary water governance.
“By acting collectively, Central Asian states have enhanced their negotiating capacity. Rather than addressing asymmetrical power relations individually, the Central Asia-China format allows for the articulation of common priorities in key areas such as connectivity, energy cooperation, and environmental resilience,” Assetkyzy said.
According to her, the regional format reinforces Central Asia’s position as an integrated subregion capable of engaging major powers on more balanced terms.
Kazakhstan-China trade. Photo credit: The Astana Times
“As noted during recent expert engagements, the format represents a model of ‘coordination without binding commitments,’ preserving national sovereignty while enabling flexible engagement,” she added.
Trade dynamics
China remains Kazakhstan’s second-largest trading partner in both exports and imports. According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the country’s bilateral trade with China reached $30.05 billion in 2024, maintaining nearly the same level as in 2023. Exports increased slightly to $14.89 billion in 2024, while imports declined modestly to $15.15 billion.
Zhadyra Assetkyzy. Photo credit: KazISS
In the first four months of 2025, trade turnover between the two countries reached $8.57 billion, marking a slight decline from $8.93 billion during the same period in 2024.
While imports from China increased to $5.04 billion, up from $4.44 billion the previous year, Kazakhstan’s exports to China decreased to $3.53 billion, compared to $4.49 billion in the first quarter of 2024.
Between January and April, China accounted for 15.5% of Kazakhstan’s total exports, following Italy’s 24.5%, and contributed 27.4% of Kazakhstan’s imports, second to Russia’s 28.4%.
The trade volume between China and Central Asia reached $95 billion in 2024, with nearly half of that amount being with Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan led the region with $43.82 billion in bilateral trade, followed by the Kyrgyz Republic with $22.71 billion, Uzbekistan with $13.78 billion, Turkmenistan with $10.65 billion, and Tajikistan with $3.86 billion.
China-Central Asia trade. Photo credit: The Astana Times
Infrastructure priorities
Assetkyzy emphasized that infrastructure projects such as the TITR, China-Europe freight trains, and the China-Kyrgyz Republic-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway are not merely transport links, but “transformative economic platforms that catalyze industrial development, regional integration, and value-added production.”
Kazakhstan’s participation in the BRI has positioned the country as a key transit hub connecting Asia and Europe. Projects such as the Khorgos dry port, the Altynkol railway crossing, and the Western Europe-Western China highway have significantly enhanced transit capacity and logistics flow.
“The CKU railway is reshaping intra-regional trade flows, offering alternative southern access routes and unlocking co-financing for infrastructure from Chinese financial institutions. This has accelerated supply chain diversification and improved trade resilience, particularly in response to maritime disruptions,” she said.
Kazakhstan’s commitment to deepen ties
Kazakh Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s economic commitment to developing long-term economic ties with Central Asia and China in his remarks to the second Central Asia-China Industrial and Investment Cooperation Forum in Astana on June 16. The forum alone witnessed the signing of 58 commercial agreements worth $24 billion.
“Our partnership portfolio with China includes 224 projects worth around $66.5 billion, creating approximately 50,000 jobs. The trade turnover between our countries has already reached $43.8 billion, and we have set an ambitious goal to increase it to $100 billion in the near future,” said Kuantyrov.
Kazakhstan has completed 62 joint projects with China worth $8.7 billion, with another 55 projects totaling $13.5 billion under development. The volume of cargo transported between the two countries grew by 13% in 2024, reaching 29.3 million tons.
What are the risks?
Experts are also cautious about potential risks. Shaimergenova highlighted that large-scale financing through Chinese mechanisms, particularly loans from state-owned banks, may carry long-term financial obligations. Under unfavorable economic conditions, such arrangements could lead to fiscal pressure or a reassessment of strategic asset management.
She also noted that the influx of Chinese imports can weaken local manufacturing and deepen trade deficits. The extensive use of Chinese technology and equipment, while modernizing, also risks creating long-term technological dependence.
“Many projects are implemented using Chinese equipment and digital solutions, which, on the one hand, ensures rapid technological progress, but on the other, creates long-term dependence on foreign suppliers and reduces incentives to develop local research and engineering capabilities,” Shaimergenova said.
“Large infrastructure projects carried out at an accelerated pace can result in environmental degradation, changes to the landscape, and dissatisfaction among local communities,” she added, noting that insufficient transparency in public consultation exacerbates concerns.
Diversified partnerships
To mitigate such risks, Central Asian states are pursuing diversified partnerships, including investment initiatives with the European Union, the United States, Turkiye, Japan, and South Korea, as well as cooperation with development banks and international organizations.
“Transparency, rule of law, unified regulatory standards, and effective investor support mechanisms, such as one-stop-shop systems and public-private partnerships, make the region more attractive and reduce the risk of unequal agreements,” said Shaimergenova.
“Economic policy coordination within the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and other regional organizations contributes to the formation of a common economic space and the development of shared standards for working with external investors. It also reduces the risks of fragmentation and competition among the region’s countries,” she added.
Assetkyzy noted that safeguards, such as joint project management and local job creation mandates, reinforce balanced engagement. She views the Central Asia-China format as a “platform for strategic risk mitigation,” especially amid global economic fragmentation.
“While the question of overdependence on any single partner is often raised in global discussions, the nature of cooperation between Central Asia and China is not one of dependency, but of strategic complementarity. Kazakhstan consistently follows a multi-vector approach, maintaining strong relations not only with China but also with the EU, the Gulf countries, Japan, and international organizations,” Assetkyzy said.
“Rather than dependency, the relationship is structured around strategic complementarity and pragmatic alignment with long-term regional priorities – supporting resilience, industrial modernization, and proactive ownership of development trajectories. The risks, while acknowledged, are already integrated into policy design and mitigated accordingly,” she said.
