ASTANA — Kazakhstan recorded a foreign trade surplus of $20.1 billion from January to October 2024, a 33.4% year-on-year (y/y) increase from $15.0 billion in the same period of 2023, Halyk Finance investment bank reported on Dec. 20, citing the Bureau of National Statistics.
Photo credit: kapital.kz.
This is the highest trade balance in the past four years, excluding 2022, when export volumes increased sharply due to re-exports to Russia.
The surplus was driven by export growth and reduced imports. Exports rose by 5.1% year over year to $68.5 billion, supported by high oil prices, averaging $81 per barrel. Oil revenues climbed 6.5% year over year to $37.2 billion. Metal (+13.4%) and chemical exports (+18%) also made their contribution.
Imports dropped 3.3% year over year to $48.4 billion, mainly due to an 8.7% reduction in machinery and equipment imports. Food imports rose 7.3%, and chemical products—2.4% year over year, partially offsetting the decline.
Kazakhstan’s exports remain heavily reliant on raw materials, with over 80% comprising mineral products, metals, and unprocessed food. To reduce dependence on global commodity prices, government support measures should be aimed at non-raw materials exports, particularly medium — and high-tech goods. These export dynamics should become the main indicator of the effectiveness of the country’s industrial policy.
Halyk Finance expects minimal trade structure and volume changes for the remainder of 2024. The tenge’s depreciation may support exports, but stagnant oil production and falling oil prices, driven by U.S. election outcomes and reduced Chinese demand, are limiting factors.
Kazakhstan’s trade balance is expected to continue improving, potentially reducing the current account deficit to 1.3% of GDP.
