ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 4.4%, the inflation rate to be 9.5%, and an exchange rate in the range of 545.2 tenge per U.S. dollar, according to the survey released by the Kazakh Association of Financiers’ analytical center on Dec. 10.
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The survey included experts from banks, insurance and brokerage companies, as well as employees of analytical and treasury departments.
According to the survey results, experts’ expectations for the tenge exchange rate have deteriorated after its decline in November (+5%). The estimate for December is 524.1 tenge per U.S. dollar. Over the following 12 months, the dollar exchange rate is anticipated to grow to 545.2 tenge per U.S. dollar. The study was conducted in early December, when the tenge exchange rate was very low, perhaps influencing the experts’ judgments.
Internal causes, ruble volatility, and the predicted fall in oil prices in 2025 impact the tenge exchange rate. The oil price is expected to be $71.7 per barrel (compared to $77.4 a month ago). Kazakhstan’s oil output is also probable to decrease as part of the OPEC+ agreement.
Due to the growth of imported inflation, changes in the oil market and fluctuations in the tenge exchange rate, inflation may be 9.5% (compared to 8.4% a month earlier).
Reduced oil production, falling oil prices and high interest rates may slow down the growth of the Kazakh economy. The projected GDP growth in 2025 is 4.4%, which is lower than the expectations of the National Bank (4.5-5.5%) and the Ministry of Economy (5.6%).
The article was originally published on Kazinform
