ALMATY — The Kazakh government approved a comprehensive Trade Policy Concept through 2030 on Nov. 27, outlining a new strategic framework for the development of domestic and external trade, modernizing retail infrastructure, and supporting producers.
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According to statistics, the trade sector remains one of the largest employers in the country. In 2024, more than 1.5 million people worked in trade, accounting for 16.6% of total employment. Over the past decade, the industry generated 228,000 new jobs and registered 806,400 business entities, representing 35.6% of all companies in Kazakhstan.
New mission for trade policy
The approved concept defines the mission of Kazakhstan’s trade policy as establishing resilient connections between production, storage and distribution chains, ensuring predictable and comfortable conditions for all market participants.
For consumers, this means access to domestic and international goods at fair prices in convenient formats. For producers, it ensures stable and profitable market channels, while trading businesses are to benefit from a transparent and competitive environment that strengthens their role as a bridge between supply and demand.
The document emphasizes that the future of Kazakhstan’s trade ecosystem will be built on digital technologies, high efficiency, fair competition, strong consumer protection, robust support for domestic industry and deeper integration into global supply chains. A central ambition is to solidify Kazakhstan’s position as a major trade and logistics hub in Central Asia.
Strengthening domestic production and expanding exports
A key priority of the policy is the transition from a traditional sales model to a production-based approach, enabling Kazakhstan to expand its non-resource exports and reduce its dependence on imports.
The strategy outlines enhanced protection of the domestic market through the wider use of tariff and non-tariff measures, alongside support mechanisms to promote high-value-added exports.
Key targets for 2030
The effectiveness of the concept will be evaluated using several measurable indicators. The physical volume index of wholesale and retail trade is expected to rise from 107% in 2025 to 110.2% by 2030. Labor productivity in trade is projected to increase significantly from 121.9% in 2025 to 171% by the end of the decade.
Investment in fixed capital is forecast to grow from 1.22 trillion tenge (approximately US$2.26 billion) in 2025 to 2.7 trillion tenge (US$5 billion) in 2030. Meanwhile, the share of the shadow economy in trade is expected to decline from 3.02% in 2025 to 2.42%.
The government aims to expand exchange trading of standardized commodities to 27% by 2030, up from the current 10%. E-commerce is set to rise from 15% of total retail turnover in 2025 to 20% by 2030, while modern retail formats, including supermarkets, convenience stores and organized markets, are projected to grow from 44% to 72% over the same period.
Non-resource exports are expected to increase from $41 billion in 2025 to $52 billion by 2030. The efficiency of state consumer protection systems is planned to strengthen from 74.7% to 80.7%.
Kazakhstan is experiencing a market transformation, with the country’s domestic e-commerce sector growing sevenfold since 2020, firmly establishing online retail as an essential component of modern trade.
