ASTANA — Kazakhstan’s annual inflation rate slowed for the first time this year, reaching 12.6% in October compared to 12.9% in September. Monthly inflation also declined sharply, to 0.5% from 1.1% a month earlier, the lowest rate since early this year.
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The slowdown was mainly driven by a sharp decline in housing and utility service prices, which fell by 3.5% in October. However, analysts note that such a drop raises questions, as tariffs in this sector are regulated and no official announcements of reductions were made, reported Halyk Research on Nov. 4.
The government has introduced a moratorium on utility tariff increases from Oct. 16, through the first quarter of 2026.
Despite overall inflation easing, food and non-food prices continued to rise. Food prices accelerated to 13.5% year-on-year, marking a new high for 2025, with the largest increases seen in meat (21.1%), cooking oil (18.4%), and non-alcoholic beverages (15.2%). Non-food items rose by 11% year-on-year, led by fuel (14.9%), footwear (11.2%), and clothing (10.5%).
Analysts attribute persistent price pressures to the earlier depreciation of the tenge and stronger ruble, which have contributed to import-driven inflation.
Economists maintain their year-end inflation forecast at 12-12.5%, citing fiscal tightening, the moratorium on regulated prices, a stronger tenge supported by foreign currency sales and external borrowings, slower credit growth, and an expected weakening of the Russian ruble later this year.
