ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s foreign trade in 2025 remained a key driver of economic growth, but emerging imbalances point to rising structural risks. While overall turnover continued to expand and trade partnerships remained stable, declining export revenues and accelerating import growth narrowed the trade surplus, increasing pressure on the external sector.
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Key indicators
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover between January and December reached $143.9 billion, up 1.3% year-on-year. Exports decreased by 3.2% to $79 billion, while imports increased by 7.4% to $64.8 billion. The trade surplus narrowed from $21.3 billion to $14.2 billion, representing 4.6% of GDP, compared to 7.3% in 2024.
Kazakhstan’s trade remained concentrated among key partners. China and Russia are the largest, with trade growth with China primarily driven by imports. Trade with European countries largely depends on commodity exports. Trade with the United States reached $3.2 billion, with exports nearly halving to $1.0 billion and imports declining slightly to $2.2 billion. While U.S. tariffs directly affected only a small share of exports, broader uncertainty may influence exporter behavior.
Trade with Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries totaled $30.9 billion, slightly lower than the previous year (-0.1%). Exports to EAEU countries declined to $10.1 billion (-8.3%), while imports grew to $20.8 billion (+4.4%). Russia remained the dominant partner (88.6%), followed by the Kyrgyz Republic (7.3%), Belarus (3.9%), and Armenia (0.2%).
Trade as a growth driver
Despite the weakening external balance, trade continues to play a central role in Kazakhstan’s economy. In 2025, the sector contributed 26% of total GDP growth. Domestic trade turnover reached 80 trillion tenge (US$168 billion), while investment in the sector totaled 1.3 trillion tenge (US$2.7 billion). Non-resource exports reached $41 billion, and services exports grew by 3.7% to $12.3 billion.
Speaking at a Ministry of Trade and Integration meeting on Feb. 18, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin emphasized that trade remains a system-forming pillar linking production, business, and consumers. He highlighted the need to shift from a regulatory approach to driving growth through expanded trade turnover, stronger domestic supply chains, and increased exports, the Prime Minister’s press service reported.
Policy priorities also include digitalization, development of exchange-based trade, and support for high-value-added exports. In parallel, the government plans to capitalize the Baiterek holding company by one trillion tenge (US$2.1 billion) to finance around 1,500 projects in agriculture, manufacturing, and infrastructure, many of which aim to reduce dependence on imports. Ensuring stable demand for this output remains a key institutional challenge.
Exports and imports
Kazakhstan’s exports in 2025 were concentrated in a few key commodities. The largest share was accounted for by crude oil and petroleum products derived from bituminous minerals (50.5%). Other significant export categories included radioactive chemical elements and isotopes (5.3%), refined copper and unwrought copper alloys (5.2%), copper ores and concentrates (3.6%), and ferroalloys (2.6%).
In terms of imports, the largest shares belonged to passenger cars (4.4%), pharmaceuticals (2.8%), telephones (2.4%), motor vehicle bodies (2.3%), and parts and accessories for motor vehicles (2.2%).
Kazakhstan’s main export partners were Italy (19.8%), China (19.2%), Russia (10.3%), the Netherlands (7.6%), Türkiye (4.9%), and Uzbekistan (4.5%). Meanwhile, the country’s principal import partners included Russia (29.7%), China (29.2%), Germany (4.8%), South Korea (3.5%), the United States (3.3%), and France (2.4%).
Structural risks rising
Analysts point to a deterioration in external trade conditions. According to Halyk Finance, the decline in export revenues was largely driven by the commodity component. The average Brent crude price fell to around $69 per barrel in 2025, down from approximately $81 per barrel a year earlier. As a result, oil export earnings declined despite a 7% increase in physical volumes. Oil and petroleum products still account for roughly half of total merchandise exports.
At the same time, strong domestic demand fueled import growth, notably in vehicles, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. Budgetary and quasi-fiscal stimulus further supported demand for imported goods, increasing pressure on the external sector.
The Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan also highlights structural vulnerabilities. The shrinking trade surplus, now at 4.6% of GDP, reflects a shift in the growth model toward domestic demand and investment. In the context of high commodity concentration and import dependence, this increases sensitivity to external price fluctuations and exchange rate shocks, underscoring the need for export diversification.
Forecasts and early 2026 data
Government forecasts for 2026 suggest exports may decline to $77.1 billion, while imports could rise to $67.7 billion. The trade surplus might shrink to $9.4 billion, indicating an ongoing adjustment in the external position.
Early data for January show exports increased by 22.8% to $6.3 billion, outpacing imports, which grew by 7.7% to $4.7 billion. The resulting trade surplus was $1.6 billion. Despite this short-term improvement, export composition remains heavily reliant on oil and petroleum products.
