ASTANA — Kazakhstan produced 471,000 tons of refined copper in 2025, according to the Bureau of National Statistics, as rising global demand for copper reinforces its strategic importance for energy and industrial development and reshapes the country’s priorities.
Kazakhstan produced 471,000 tons of refined copper in 2025. Photo credit: energyprom.kz
Refined copper, a high-purity metal processed through smelting and electrochemical refining, is widely used in electricity transmission, electronics manufacturing, and industrial equipment. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, production increased by 1.5% year over year, indicating gradual stabilization after several years of fluctuations.
In 2018, refined copper output totaled 442,600 tons. Production increased to 476,500 tons in 2019 and to 482,900 tons in 2020, then declined to 403,300 tons or 16.5% in 2021, marking the deepest contraction in the reviewed period.
The decline resulted from scheduled capital repairs and modernization at several processing facilities, including furnace maintenance at the Balkhash copper smelter operated by Kazakhmys Smelting.
Pandemic-related disruptions also affected operations. By 2024, output had recovered to 474,900 tons, exceeding 2021 levels by 17.8%.
How are export markets shifting?
Despite the recovery in production, it did not result in higher export volumes. According to the State Revenue Committee of the Finance Ministry and the Bureau of National Statistics, refined copper exports totaled 400,800 tons in January-November 2025, down 8.3% from the same period in 2024.
The decline was largely driven by reduced shipments to China, which fell by 89,100 tons, or 31.2%, from 285,800 tons to 196,700 tons. China’s share in Kazakhstan’s copper exports declined from 65.4% to 49.1% over the same period.
In contrast, exports to Türkiye increased by 15.3%, raising its share to 40.9%. Together, China and Türkiye accounted for 90% of total refined copper exports in the first 11 months of 2025.
Exports to other countries expanded from 9,200 tons to 40,100 tons, lifting their share of exports from 2.1% to 10%.
Global demand outlook
According to S&P Global, global copper demand is projected to increase from 27.3 million tons in 2024 to 42.3 million tons by 2040, a rise of approximately 55%.
Growth is expected to be driven primarily by the energy transition, the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, as well as expanding electric vehicle production, modernization of electricity grids and renewable energy infrastructure. The development of AI and data centers is also projected to increase consumption.
Copper use linked to the energy transition is forecast to more than double by 2040, rising from 7.6 million tons to 15.6 million tons. Demand from AI and data centers is expected to increase from one million to 2.5 million tons. Consumption in traditional sectors, including construction and machinery manufacturing, is projected to rise from 17.8 million to 23.3 million tons.
According to Fitch Solutions, China will make the largest contribution to global refined copper demand growth through 2028. Chinese consumption is projected to increase from 15.9 million tons in 2023 to 18.9 million tons in 2028, accounting for approximately 60% of global demand.
Prices rise as supply geography evolves
International copper prices have risen significantly over the past year.
According to Reuters, prices rose nearly 50% to approximately $13,000 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange in mid-January. Part of the rally was attributed to expectations of potential U.S. tariffs and reduced output at major producers such as Rio Tinto and Freeport-McMoRan.
Reuters also noted that prices above roughly $11,000 per ton are generally considered sufficient to justify investment in new mining projects. However, such levels may not be sustained if trade conditions change.
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie, cited by Reuters, point to a geographic shift in global copper supply, with flows moving from parts of Latin America and Central Africa toward regions including Central Asia. Kazakhstan’s copper reserves and proximity to China have contributed to increased interest from Chinese and international mining companies.
Arman Batayev, an asset management and financial markets expert from Kazakhstan, indicates that more than $200 billion in investment may be required by 2035 to meet projected global copper demand.
“As a result, Kazakhstan finds itself at the center of a new copper geography – between global corporations, China’s strategic interests and rising global demand for metals needed for the energy transition and digital economy. However, the current situation shows that even record prices alone do not guarantee that projects will be implemented at full scale,” said Batayev.
Policy measures and trade environment
Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Council meeting in Moscow on Jan. 30. Photo credit: primeminister.kz
Amid price volatility and shifting trade patterns, Kazakhstan is adjusting domestic policy instruments. The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Council approved a temporary exemption from import customs duties on copper matte and cement copper, intermediate copper products used in further processing, for Kazakhstan through the end of 2026, within a total volume of up to 2,500 tons, at its meeting in Moscow on Jan. 30.
The measure is intended to reduce input costs for domestic non-ferrous producers and support the competitiveness of finished metal products.
In Kazakhstan, cement copper is produced by KazZinc, which also uses it as a processing input. The company’s annual requirement for copper matte and cement copper is approximately 1,800 tons. The temporary zero tariff is expected to lower procurement costs and ease the fiscal burden associated with importing raw materials.
