ASTANA – The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) fixed the base rate to 16.5% per annum with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage points, reports the bank’s press service.
The building of the National Bank of Kazakhstan in Astana. Photo credit: National Bank of Kazakhstan press service
The move comes amid sustained inflationary pressure. Annual inflation reached 11.3% in May, driven by rising prices for both regulated tariffs and market-based services. External factors, including economic developments in Russia and high global commodity prices, are also contributing to inflation.
According to the NBK’s statement, given persistent inflationary pressures, moderately tight monetary conditions will likely be maintained longer than previously anticipated. The balance of risks has shifted toward higher inflation, making it likely the base rate will remain unchanged through the end of 2025. NBK’s Governor Timur Suleimenov acknowledged the uncertainty around future policy but said that current forecasts anticipate the base rate remaining at 16.5% throughout 2025.
NBK’s Governor Timur Suleimenov . Photo credit: National Bank of Kazakhstan
“It is clear that these are forecasts, and many things will change. But so far, based on the forecast round, which ended today, it is assumed that the base rate will be at this level throughout 2025,” he said.
The economic growth forecast for 2025 was revised upward to 5–6%, fueled by stronger domestic demand and increased investment. Growth in 2026 is projected at 4–5%, slightly lower due to a more moderate pace and weaker export growth under the lower oil price scenario.
Continued expansion will rely on government-initiated structural reforms, including measures to boost capital investment, attract foreign direct investment, and liberalize the economy.
Monthly inflation for May stood at 0.9%, significantly above historical trends. Core and seasonally adjusted inflation indicators were 10.1% and 11.4% year-on-year, respectively.
“The data indicates persistent price pressures amid heightened consumer demand, rising production costs, and continued fiscal stimulus,” reads the statement.
Inflation expectations among the population rose to 14.1% in May, up from 12.2% in April, underscoring continued volatility and uncertainty.
The National Bank revised its baseline scenario for Brent crude oil to average $60 per barrel through the forecast period, reflecting excess global supply.
As a result, inflation forecasts were adjusted. Inflation is now projected to reach 10.5–12.5% in 2025 and 9.5–11.5% in 2026. By the end of 2027, inflation is expected to decline to 5.5–7.5%, supported by tighter monetary policy and a gradual phase-out of budgetary stimulus as part of fiscal consolidation.
