ASTANA – Two recent studies on energy transition in Kazakhstan provide an in-depth analysis of both expert and public perceptions of current energy transition policies. The papers were presented during a roundtable, organized by the Institute of Public Policy and Administration of the University of Central Asia and the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Nazarbayev University, on April 24 in Astana.
Jessica Neafie and her team presenting the study on “Energy Transition Governance: Opportunities and Threats on the Road to a Sustainable Future in Kazakhstan.” Photo credit: The Astana Times
Their findings could inform policymakers and help overcome hurdles to a successful energy transition.
Kazakhstan’s energy transition governance assessment
A research team, led by Jessica Neafie, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations of Nazarbayev University, presented the results of Kazakhstan’s energy transition governance assessment based on SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.
The research involved 15 in-depth interviews with scientists, international and domestic-level experts. The study also evaluated Kazakhstan’s progress toward achieving its stated carbon neutrality targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement.
“As far as some of Kazakhstan’s goals, especially in increasing renewables, Kazakhstan has actually been rather successful, introducing new renewables to the energy grid. However, there’re still a lot of issues, such as Kazakhstan needing to deal with a grid that is no longer up to modern standards. They need to modernize it,” said Neafie.
Kazakhstan’s strengths include the introduction of robust market mechanisms such as the emissions trading system, along with strong policy support through new regulations, laws, and updated ecological codes. These efforts create opportunities for green financing, global partnerships, and increased corporate investment in green technologies.
Concerns based on economic stability and regulatory environment are among the weaknesses that might hinder Kazakhstan from shifting to renewables.
“The first and the prominent one is that we are still highly reliant on fossil fuels and it leads to ineffectiveness of financial mechanisms. On top of that, the regulatory environment is very unstable in Kazakhstan. Even though the government tries to be proactive and tries to introduce new regulations to support the market, the unstable environment makes it very difficult for companies to invest,” said Neafie’s team member during the presentation.
Lack of local experience, transparency, and asymmetric information were also identified as weaknesses in the study.
Study on public perception of energy transition
Another study by conducted by the team at the University of Central Asia, led by Madina Junussova, urban development lead for Graduate School of Development Leadership and senior research fellow at the Institute of Public Policy and Administration (IPPA), and Mira Maulsharif, professor at the School of Humanities of Narxoz University, Savva Brown, junior research fellow at IPPA, and Saniya Soltybayeva, a doctoral student at Nazarbayev University.
Saniya Soltybayeva presenting her study on “Decarbonisation, Just Transition and Economic Diversification in Kazakhstan.” Photo credit: The Astana Times
They aimed to understand public perceptions on energy transition and economic diversification. The study was based on a phone survey, which was completed by 1,014 respondents from 18 cities across Kazakhstan, including Astana, Almaty, Shymkent, and coal mining, oil and gas, industrial, and other mining cities.
“The majority of respondents (93%) understand the consequences of climate change. A higher level of awareness we observe among men, also in the age group from 25 to 54 years, i.e. the economically active population, as well as among residents of large cities,” said Soltybayeva.
“Most respondents believe that divesting from fossil fuels will bring positive changes to their lives (68.7%). First of all, the overwhelming majority of people responded that this would be achieved by improving air quality and the health of the people living in these cities,” she added.
One set of concerns centered on the potential job displacement, with 63.3% of respondents expressing worry about this issue. “This is especially felt among the working-age population and in coal mining regions, predominantly,” said Soltybayeva.
On a positive note, 55.2% of respondents think that the transition to renewables will create new jobs.
“It is important to note that in Kazakhstan there is high public support for renewable energy and almost 77% of respondents are in favor of renewables, especially solar and wind energy,” said Soltybayeva.
