ASTANA – When Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrived in Astana this week, the language of brotherhood between Kazakhstan and Türkiye sounded different. It was no longer centered on shared history alone, but on oil routes, drone production, cargo corridors and the shifting balance of power in the region.
Assel Satubaldina.
As the war in Ukraine drags into another year, China accelerates its infrastructure and industrial expansion, and the Middle East enters another period of volatility, middle powers across Eurasia are recalibrating. Kazakhstan and Türkiye, among them, increasingly see each other not simply as brotherly nations, but as anchors of a new transcontinental axis stretching from Central Asia to Europe through the Caspian Sea.
“During this difficult period, we expressed our concern regarding the escalation of armed conflicts. Our discussion also focused on the erosion of international law and the declining influence of universal organisations,” Tokayev said at a joint press conference on May 14, following his meeting with Erdoğan.
“We reached a common conclusion on the need to strengthen the role of the United Nations, to strictly observe its resolutions and Charter, to ensure the primacy of international law, and to uphold the principle of justice. We noted the need to resolve all disputes and conflicts peacefully through diplomatic negotiations. Kazakhstan and Türkiye will continue to cooperate within the framework of international organisations. We will join forces to ensure global stability and security,” he said.
Key highlights
The warmth between Tokayev and Erdoğan, who met most recently during the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in April, was evident throughout the visit in long handshakes, warm smiles and repeated references to “brotherly nations” that reflected how closely the two countries increasingly see each other.
“Let me once again underscore that we will always be the strongest supporter of Kazakhstan, which celebrates the 35th anniversary of its independence,” said Erdoğan at a closing session of the bilateral business forum in Astana on May 14.
As part of the visit, the two presidents signed a Declaration on Eternal Friendship and Expanded Strategic Partnership, pledged to raise bilateral trade to $15 billion, discussed expanding the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) and explored deeper cooperation in energy, mining, agriculture, artificial intelligence and defense production.
Among the signed bilateral documents were an updated legal assistance protocol, a new bilateral investment protection agreement, an agreement on opening and operating cultural centers, and a series of memorandums covering energy, education, finance, media and defense cooperation.
Transport and logistics cooperation
Transport and transit cooperation remains a key pillar of bilateral economic relations.
According to the Kazakh foreign ministry’s figures, in the first 11 months of 2025, rail freight transportation between the two countries increased by 33.9%, exceeding 5.9 million tons. Road freight transportation increased by 1.2% in 2025 to 740,600 tons.
There is a far more pragmatic calculation: whoever controls connectivity across Eurasia may wield outsized influence in the next phase of global trade. That helps explain why transport discussions featured so prominently. Tokayev invited Turkish companies to help expand cargo capacity at Aktau and Kuryk on the Caspian Sea, while Erdoğan openly signaled Türkiye’s desire to move more Kazakh oil to international markets through Turkish territory.
Much attention was paid to TITR, also known as the Middle Corridor. It has rapidly evolved into one of the most politically important infrastructure projects across Eurasia. Cargo transportation through the route totaled 2.8 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, down 4% from 2.9 million tons a year earlier. The long-term goal is to increase volumes to 10 million tons.
“Overall, expanding the potential of the Middle Corridor is in the long-term interests of our countries,” said Tokayev at the business forum.
Tastenov described the route as the “new geo-economic axis of Eurasia.”
“The route passes through China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye. This is precisely why both Astana and Ankara view it not merely as a transport project, but as an element of strategic security. Given the situation in Iran and the resulting energy crisis, the significance of the Middle Corridor as a reliable transit route is increasing significantly,” he explained.
For some experts, it reflects something larger than bilateral diplomacy. “We are witnessing not just diplomatic rapprochement, but a synchronization of strategic thinking,” Süleyman Kiziltoprak, rector of the Kütahya Dumlupınar University, told Kazinform news agency.
However, ambitions surrounding the Middle Corridor still face major limitations, including infrastructure bottlenecks, customs inefficiencies and regional instability stretching from the South Caucasus to the Middle East.
On May 15, Tokayev and Erdoğan traveled to Turkistan to take part in an informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States, once viewed skeptically by many outside observers as largely symbolic, but now gradually acquiring sharper geopolitical and economic dimensions. Leaders are expected to discuss artificial intelligence and digital development, which reflects the organization’s efforts to define itself not only through shared heritage, but through technological and economic coordination.
