For much of the post-Soviet era, Chinese influence in Central Asia was met with deep skepticism. In Kazakhstan and its neighbors, public opinion often bristled at the specter of a rising China next door. Memories of historical incursions and fears of economic domination led to wariness about Chinese investments and intentions. Yet the story of the past several years has been one of gradually transformed perceptions.
Miras Zhiyenbayev
Consistent, respectful engagement by China has slowly chipped away at old suspicions and built new trust. Beijing did not respond to Central Asian wariness with defensiveness or dominance; instead, it doubled down on patience and respect. Chinese officials made a point of acknowledging Central Asian nations as equal partners, repeatedly emphasizing mutual benefit and non-interference. Major initiatives like the Belt and Road were framed not as Chinese expansion but as a shared opportunity for development. This consistent good-faith approach has elevated Beijing’s stature from a suspected threat to a trusted partner in the eyes of Kazakhstan’s leadership and much of its public.
One of the most compelling aspects of the Kazakhstan–China partnership is that deeper strategic cooperation has not come at the expense of other relationships. Kazakhstan offers a textbook example of how a middle power can broaden ties with a great power while keeping its foreign policy multidimensional. Closer ties with Beijing have not led Astana to shun Moscow, Washington, Brussels or Ankara. On the contrary, Kazakhstan has proven that strategic cooperation need not mean exclusivity – it means engaging all partners on the basis of mutual benefit.
This principle was on full display at the landmark Central Asia–China summit held in Astana in June 2025. The summit concluded with a watershed agreement: the signing of the Treaty on Eternal Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between China and all five Central Asian republics. This multilateral treaty formally commits the six countries to long-term friendship, non-aggression, and collaborative development. Just a few years ago, such a pact would have seemed far-fetched; regional capitals might have bristled at binding themselves to China in this manner. But the fact that every Central Asian leader signed on enthusiastically speaks volumes about how trust has replaced threat perception. The treaty’s very title, invoking “eternal good-neighborliness”, underscores that these states now see China not as a hegemon to guard against, but as a neighbor to embrace for generations.
Notably, this new Central Asia–China pact is not an exclusive bloc or alliance. It doesn’t require Central Asians to sever or downgrade ties with any other power. Instead, it creates a framework wherein deeper regional cooperation with China reinforces each nation’s sovereignty and stability, which in turn allows them to engage confidently with all partners. In President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s words at the summit, Central Asia and China have achieved the level of an “eternal strategic partnership” – a relationship durable enough to weather global storms without demanding fealty or exclusivity.
This approach stands in stark contrast to the zero-sum mentality that often pervades great-power competition. There is no hint of “you are either with us or against us” in the China–Central Asia dynamic. Kazakhstan can welcome massive Chinese investments and security assistance, and in the same breath, cooperate with the United States on energy or with Europe on technology and education. Astana has shown that engaging a great power like China can be additive, not subtractive, to a middle power’s foreign policy.
The burgeoning China–Central Asia partnership is all the more remarkable given the backdrop of today’s world. Traditional global security frameworks are crumbling, and multilateral institutions are under strain. From the collapse of arms control treaties to waning trust in international bodies, the world order is fragmenting. Major powers frequently find themselves at odds, and smaller states often feel forced to pick sides in an increasingly polarized environment. Yet here in the heart of Eurasia, Kazakhstan and its neighbors have charted a different course – one where a group of middle powers engage a great power on their own terms to create new security and development mechanisms.
The Treaty on Good-Neighborliness is one such mechanism: it effectively establishes a six-nation regional security and cooperation club anchored not in ideological alignment but in practical mutual interest. At a time when big-power rivalry is heating up elsewhere, Central Asia and China have cultivated a zone of geopolitical calm and constructive engagement. This sends an implicit message to the world: even amid global fragmentation, it is possible to build inclusive partnerships that emphasize dialogue over division.
Multilateralism with a Xi’an flavor
Another distinctive feature of the China–Central Asia model is its innovative blend of bilateral and multilateral engagement. Most major powers prefer one-on-one dealings with smaller states, where their heft can be used to maximum advantage. China and Central Asia certainly have strong bilateral ties, but they have also developed a true multilateral partnership. The regular Central Asia–China summits are the clearest example, bringing all parties to the table as a group of equals.
What sets this format apart from other “C5+1” platforms (such as those Central Asia has with the U.S., EU, Japan, etc.) is how institutionalized and action-oriented it has become in a short time. After the inaugural summit in Xi’an in 2023, China took the extra step of establishing a permanent secretariat to coordinate the implementation of summit agreements. It’s a level of institutional commitment that far exceeds other C5+1 formats, which tend to be looser consultative meetings. By investing in multilateral mechanisms, China has signaled that it wants a long-term community with Central Asia, not just ad-hoc deals.
This multilateral spirit goes hand in hand with China’s “intergenerational” approach to partnership. Chinese and Central Asian leaders often speak about their cooperation in grand, forward-looking terms – not just what it achieves today, but what it means for the future of their peoples. There is a conscious effort to involve youth and diverse sectors of society to cement ties beyond just government officials.
The benefits of this approach are mutual. Central Asians gain access to China’s vast market and technology, but also to its developmental knowledge – from how to manage special economic zones to poverty reduction techniques. China, for its part, gains stable neighbors and a reservoir of goodwill on its western frontier. Initiatives like the new China-Central Asia education and innovation centers (announced by Xi Jinping to focus on poverty alleviation, education exchange, and desertification control) show how both sides are investing in public goods together.
The multilateral engagement via the Xi’an secretariat means that if, say, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are working on a railway with China, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are looped in on connecting infrastructure and standards, ensuring a regional vision rather than isolated bilateral projects. This cohesive approach contrasts sharply with the pattern of competing corridors and exclusive clubs seen elsewhere in the world. In a time when multilateralism is often on the back foot globally, Central Asia and China are quietly pioneering a new form of it – one less about grand ideology and more about pragmatic integration.
A cooperative nexus, not a battleground
Central Asia is often portrayed as the site of a looming tug-of-war among great powers – a new “Great Game” pitting East against West. But Kazakhstan and its neighbors, through their open and strategic engagement, are proving that Central Asia is not destined to be a battleground of rivalries, but can instead be a cooperative nexus linking all sides. In fact, the deepening of Chinese ties in Central Asia has unlocked benefits not only for China and the region, but for outside powers as well. This is a critical point: a more connected Central Asia is a win-win for East and West alike. By refusing to frame their relations in adversarial terms, Central Asian states have encouraged major powers to find complementary interests in the region.
Consider the realm of global supply chains. In recent years, both Europe and the United States have talked about diversifying supply routes and reducing over-reliance on any single transit corridor. Chinese connectivity investments in Central Asia directly serve this Western interest. Thanks to billions of dollars of Chinese-led infrastructure (new rail lines, upgraded highways, logistics hubs) a viable “Middle Corridor” now runs from China through Kazakhstan, across the Caspian Sea, and onward to Europe. This overland route has seen a surge in freight trains and trucks carrying everything from electronics to grain between Europe and China. European companies benefit from faster shipping times that rival sea freight, and European governments benefit from having an alternative to routes that went through Russia.
In essence, China’s investment in Central Asian connectivity has given the West a new Silk Road to trade on, enhancing global supply chain resilience. Far from undermining Western economic interests, the improved transport links through Kazakhstan and its neighbors have become a shared asset.
The reverse is also true: Western and other international projects in Central Asia end up serving Chinese and regional interests. Take, for example, the efforts by the European Union, Japan, and the United States to develop infrastructure and energy links in the Caspian and South Caucasus region. Projects like port upgrades on the Caspian Sea, new pipelines and electricity grids, or digital fiber-optic lines across Central Asia all dovetail with China’s vision of a connected Eurasia. When the EU invests in better roads from Kazakh oil fields to Black Sea ports, it indirectly facilitates China’s Belt and Road shipments along those same roads. When the U.S. supports, say, power generation or reforms to improve the business climate in Uzbekistan, it makes the region more stable and prosperous – which in turn reassures Chinese investors and traders.
Rather than a zero-sum game, Central Asia has become a junction where initiatives from East and West intersect and reinforce each other. Central Asian diplomacy – with Kazakhstan often in the lead – has been adept at encouraging this synergy. Astana welcomes an EU Global Gateway investment just as warmly as a Chinese BRI projects, highlighting that more development partners mean more comprehensive growth. By staying open to all sides, countries like Kazakhstan have reduced the risk of being caught in a binary conflict between great powers. They prove that multi-alignment, when managed wisely, can invite cooperation from all quarters.
In making Central Asia a cooperative nexus, Kazakhstan and its neighbors also send a broader message about regional stability as a shared global interest. All major powers want to avoid instability in this heart of Eurasia – be it the threat of terrorism, uncontrolled narcotics flows, or a humanitarian crisis. Kazakhstan’s close ties with China have bolstered its capacity for counterterrorism and border security (with Chinese training and equipment support), which aligns with Western goals of preventing extremist safe havens.
Likewise, China’s investments that create jobs and improve livelihoods in Central Asia address economic grievances that could otherwise breed unrest – something everyone has a stake in preventing. Kazakhstan and its neighbors have shown that inclusive development can neutralize geopolitical competition. By treating their region as a platform for connectivity rather than a prize to be won, they encourage great powers to look for win-win outcomes.
It is increasingly clear that Central Asia, with Kazakhstan at the forefront, has defined itself not as a zone of competition but as a zone of convergence. By engaging China on terms that also keep the door open to others, these middle powers have in effect told the world: we prefer to be a hub of cooperation rather than a bone of contention. And so far, the world’s great powers have respected that stance, finding value in Central Asia’s openness.
Shared future – lessons from Astana and Beijing
In a world where mistrust and rivalry often characterize relations between great powers and smaller states, the Kazakhstan–China story stands out as a heartening exception. How many regions on the globe today can confidently articulate a shared peaceful future with a major power? Very few – and yet that is precisely what Kazakhstan and China are doing. The two countries have crafted a vision of partnership that looks decades ahead, focusing on stability, development, and mutual respect.
This positive tone is not born of naivety about international affairs, but rather from a deliberate strategy by Kazakhstan to shape great-power behavior for the better. By engaging China constructively, Astana has helped steer Beijing’s regional role toward building roads, schools and pipelines instead of building spheres of influence or bases. In the process, Kazakhstan has preserved its own independence and advanced its people’s well-being, all while maintaining friendly ties with all the major centers of power. This is the hallmark of a confident middle power – one that uses diplomacy, dialogue, and initiative to guide the terms of engagement with even the mightiest of partners.
The Kazakhstan–China example offers a diplomatic and strategic legacy worth emulating. It shows that smaller nations are not doomed to be playthings of great powers; they can be shapers of international norms and bridges between rivals. It also shows that great powers, for their part, are capable of engaging respectfully and pragmatically with countries much smaller than themselves, if the relationship is approached as a true partnership.
The result is a virtuous circle: the more Kazakhstan feels secure and prosperous through its tie with China, the more confidently it can engage others, which in turn contributes back to regional stability that China welcomes. Few regions have managed to find this harmony of interests with a great power while keeping their own voice; Central Asia, led by Kazakhstan’s example, is now reaping the rewards.
The author is Miras Zhiyenbayev, the advisor to the chairman of the Board for International Affairs and Initiatives at Maqsut Narikbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan. He has recently authored the book “Widening the Scope: How Middle Powers are Changing Liberal Institutionalism” (KazISS, 2023).
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.
