ASTANA —What role will middle powers play in a multipolar world? What exactly defines a middle power? How do we identify them — by geography, diplomatic reach, economic size? These questions were at the heart of a session on May 30 at the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025, dedicated to exploring the growing importance of middle powers in today’s multipolar world.
(L-R) Thomas Greminger, Akan Rakhmetullin, Darren Spinck, Michel Duclos, Kairat Sarybay. Photo credit: AIF
Kazakhstan’s experience as a middle power
As the host country of the forum, Kazakhstan positions itself as an aspiring middle power, consistently seeking to mediate conflicts and pursue a win-win approach, particularly in the Eurasian region. Moderator Darren Spinck, associate fellow at the UK’s Henry Jackson Society, opened the discussion by giving the floor to Kazakhstan’s First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Akan Rakhmetullin.
“Kazakhstan tries to be a middle power, in classical terms. We try to be as vocal, as active, and as constructive as possible, especially in the Eurasian region,” he said.
He emphasized that Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is shaped by its complex geopolitical realities.
Kazakhstan’s First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Akan Rakhmetullin. Photo credit:AIF
“Our geographical neighborhood is not very easy, particularly these days. Kazakhstan, being the largest landlocked country, is trying to be very constructive in overcoming this vulnerability so we are not isolated within this geographic reality,” Rakhmetullin noted.
He pointed to the emergence of new centers of power such as Russia, China, the European Union (EU), and the African Union, among others, stating that this shift presents both opportunities and challenges.
“These evolving dynamics allow countries to define the kind of world they want to live in as equal partners, who listen and understand each other’s needs,” he said.
Rakhmetullin underlined that middle powers are more relevant than ever, serving as critical balancers in an international system dominated by major powers.
“If there is no balance, it’s absolutely clear that there is no peace and sustainable development, whatever that may entail,” he said.
He went on to describe Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy as a natural expression of its middle-power status.
“This approach to balance defines our foreign policy. We are friends to all and enemies to none, this is one of the main characteristics of a middle power. We try to actively participate in different arrangements and produce acceptable initiatives that lead to a safer world,” he explained, providing a concrete example of Kazakhstan’s historic decision to renounce nuclear weapons.
“It has been 33 years since we gave up our nukes. I remember there were countries who warned us not to do that, they said there should be a nuclear deterrent in this part of the world. But we deliberately, and without hesitation, got rid of them,” he said.
The roots of collective security
Kairat Sarybay, Chairman of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), highlighted Kazakhstan’s long-standing commitment to collective security, a key motivation behind the launch of CICA in 1992. At the time, the country saw an urgent need for a more effective regional security framework. According to Sarybay, the country strongly believes in the concept of preventive diplomacy.
“Preventive diplomacy is much better for the international environment. It allows us to focus on our own state development. That’s why we work to create a better, more predictable environment and build a collective security system,” he explained.
He also stressed the strategic importance of connectivity, especially among middle powers.
“Today, 21 of the world’s 30 major cities are in Asia, yet Asia is still poorly connected not only in transport and logistics but in financial and people-to-people connections. That’s why connectivity should be a major priority,” he said.
France’s middle-power experience
Special Advisor and Senior Fellow at the Institut Montaigne Michel Duclos added a European perspective. He explored how middle powers, such as France, must often balance national interests with those of larger blocs, like the EU.
“We were the first to adopt a kind of multi-alignment policy during the Cold War. De Gaulle launched a policy of détente, saying: Yes, we belong to the West, but we want good relations with the East and want to overcome divisions,” Duclos said, referencing France under Charles de Gaulle.
This approach, he said, brought France significant diplomatic prestige, highlighting that France was the first Western country to recognize Communist China.
Middle powers and strategic autonomy
Executive Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) Thomas Greminger looked ahead, predicting that more countries will begin to see themselves as middle powers in response to rising hegemony by great powers.
Executive Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) Thomas Greminger. Photo credit: AIF
“Being a middle power doesn’t mean being neutral or formally non-aligned. Kazakhstan is a case in point—it has good relations with Russia, China, the United States, and the European Union,” Greminger said.
He emphasized that diversification of political and commercial relations enables greater flexibility and strategic autonomy, hallmarks of a successful middle-power strategy.
“Middle powers have a vested interest in a predictable international system based on the rule of law,” he added.
Greminger warned that without such rules, countries risk becoming victims of great power rivalries.
“I see much closer cooperation among middle powers in the years to come. Will this be through multilateral institutions? Possibly. We already see countries like Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland—and, of course, Kazakhstan,” he said.
“In a world that is increasingly tripolar, the majority of states may soon fall into the middle-power category. They will have both a self-interest and a collective interest in shaping international norms—and in sticking together to avoid being squeezed by global powers,” he concluded.
A final word: patience
The session concluded with a sobering reflection on balancing the interests of traditional powers while adapting to the growing influence of emerging actors. When asked by an audience member about how to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Greminger emphasized the importance of patience and process expertise.
“Six to nine months ago, it was almost taboo to talk about ceasefire negotiations. Now, there’s a shared understanding that political solutions must be on the table. But what’s still missing is process expertise—knowing how to structure negotiations. Conflicts don’t get resolved in a few days. The Korean conflict took two years to negotiate. Others have taken longer,” he said.
He urged the international community to show more patience, especially at the media and political levels.
“We’ve learned a lot over the past 30 years about conflict resolution. The know-how exists but connecting it with the right actors at the right levels of government is the challenge,” Greminger concluded.
AIF 2025 convenes for the second time this year, bringing together prominent politicians to debate a range of topics, from geopolitical upheavals to green energy. This forum aims to tackle global challenges by amplifying diverse voices, just as President Tokayev emphasized in his address on the forum’s second day.
The general partner and sponsors of the AIF 2025 are the Samruk Kazyna National Welfare Fund, ERG and Freedom Bank Kazakhstan. The official sponsors are Kazakhmys, Karachaganak, KAZ Minerals, North Caspian Operating Company, Tengizchevroil, Alatau City, Baiterek Holding, VISA, Stepnogorsk Bearing Plant, Caspian Oil, Qarmet and RG Gold.
