As Kazakhstan faces growing electricity demand, aging coal plants and ambitious decarbonization goals, the government has turned its focus to nuclear energy. In 2022, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev warned that without clean nuclear power, Kazakhstan could “lose its entire economy and, along with it, its regional leadership.”
Berik Matebay.
Over 65% of Kazakhstan’s electricity still comes from coal, with many plants operating well beyond their intended 40-year lifespan. The country already faces regional power shortages, and the Ministry of Energy projects a capacity deficit exceeding 6 GW by 2030, potentially leaving billions of kilowatt-hours unmet each year. Kazakhstan aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 and source half its electricity from alternative sources by 2050, with nuclear power expected to play a pivotal role. It is seen as essential for cutting CO2 emissions and ensuring reliable, low-carbon power as the energy sector modernizes.
In a national referendum held in 2024, 71% of voters supported building the country’s first nuclear power plant. Four suppliers are now in contention to deliver the project: China’s CNNC, South Korea’s KHNP, France’s EDF and Russia’s Rosatom.
President Tokayev recently stated in an interview that the project would most likely be implemented by a consortium of companies.
Costs, timelines and financing
“Interest rates can make or break a nuclear project. A 3% loan versus a 10% loan could double the final price of electricity,” explained Joseph Somsel, a nuclear finance expert, cited by the American Nuclear Society.
According to consultancy Lazard, the economics of nuclear energy are shaped primarily by construction costs and financing terms (interest rates), which account for up to 86% of the final electricity price.
As for the construction timelines of reactor technologies currently under review by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, China led over the past decade with an average build time of six years, followed by South Korea at eight years, Russia at nine years, and France with the longest durations—up to 16.8 years, according to the World Nuclear Association’s reactor database. A 2024 study by the Centre for Independent Studies, an Australian libertarian think tank, found that China and South Korea offer the most cost-effective reactors, followed by Russia, while France’s are the most expensive. Notably, France’s EPR1200, currently under consideration, has never been built and carries risks of delays and cost overruns, as seen in earlier EPR1650 projects in France and Finland.
To keep electricity costs low, Kazakhstan must choose a supplier with a proven track record of delivering projects on time, as delays significantly drive up total project costs.
Crucially, the project will be financed through foreign loans rather than public funds. According to Minister of National Economy Nurlan Baibazarov, no direct state financing will be used. Each of the potential supplier countries brings a different financing model. Russia has offered loans between $10–25 billion at 3–4 percent interest in previous projects and often retains partial ownership. France typically takes large equity stakes, as seen in its involvement in the UK. China has extended loans at 1–6 percent interest, such as in Pakistan, while South Korea provided a $2.5 billion loan and an 18% equity stake in the UAE’s Barakah plant.
Fuel cycle and strategic leverage
Kazakhstan is the world’s leading uranium producer but lacks midstream capabilities like conversion and enrichment. Only Russia, China and France offer a full nuclear fuel cycle; South Korea cannot provide enrichment due to its agreements with the United States.
“Kazakhstan should think beyond electricity,” said a Ministry official in an interview, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The right partner can help us move up the value chain and strengthen our position in the global nuclear market by supplying value-added products.”
With Russia reducing its role in Kazakhstan’s uranium sector, China and France stand out as stronger long-term partners for developing fuel cycle infrastructure and boosting value-added exports.
Public sentiment favors safety and experience
Public opinion, particularly among digitally engaged professionals and students, shows a clear preference for safety and technological reliability. An informal poll of 527 respondents conducted in mid-2024 via LinkedIn and WhatsApp revealed that 37% support France as the preferred supplier, followed by 33% for South Korea and 16% for China. Russia had the least number of supporters.
When asked what factors the government should prioritize, 86 percent pointed to technology safety, 78% cited technological advancement, and 75% highlighted the importance of past project experience. Environmental impact was also a key concern for two-thirds of respondents.
Though not nationally representative, these results offer a valuable window into the views of Kazakhstan’s connected and informed demographic.
Road ahead
Selecting a vendor for Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant is a high-stakes decision. It will shape the country’s energy system, industrial base, and geopolitical alignment for generations.
Choosing the right partner means balancing multiple priorities: affordability and financial terms, safety and reliability, access to nuclear technology and fuel cycle capabilities, and public confidence in the project’s transparency and environmental responsibility.
A smart decision could elevate Kazakhstan into the global nuclear elite. If mishandled, it risks becoming a costly misstep with consequences that stretch far into the future.
The author is Berik Matebay, a research associate at the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. He is a Bolashak Scholarship recipient and completed his graduate program in Energy and Natural Resources at UT Austin.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.
