ASTANA — The Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS) hosted an expert meeting to discuss the country’s future, exploring its challenges and opportunities on March 18. The event featured the presentation of KazISS Director Yerkin Tukumov’s monograph, titled “The Future of Kazakhstan: A Narrow Corridor of Opportunities.”
The presentation of KazISS Director Yerkin Tukumov’s monograph, titled “The Future of Kazakhstan: A Narrow Corridor of Opportunities.” Photo credit: Nagima Abuova / The Astana Time
The meeting fostered an open dialogue on key issues shaping the nation’s trajectory, bringing together leading Kazakh scientists, analysts, public figures and media representatives.
Tukumov’s monograph, published in Kazakh, Russian, and English, explores critical factors such as climate change, technological advancements, demographic shifts and pandemic threats. It underscores the need for strategic solutions to adapt and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Navigating the narrow corridor of opportunities
Experts discuss key issues shaping Kazakhstan’s future. Photo credit: Nagima Abuova / The Astana Times
“We need an honest and thorough analysis of our past, a frank conversation about our identity and direction. That is why, as the author, I have raised these issues in this book. The question of what Kazakhstan should be is just as crucial as economic modernization because everything begins with consciousness,” said Tukumov.
He noted that modernization has long been equated with Westernization—adopting successful Western models and applying them here.
“On the surface, this may seem straightforward: take what works and implement it. But building a second United States or Europe is not a simple matter. The success of any nation is rooted in its unique history, traditions and societal development,” he said.
His analysis delves into economic challenges, including overcoming the middle-income trap, diversifying the economy, and reducing reliance on raw materials. The study also highlights the significance of long-term strategic planning over 10, 20, and 50 years, focusing on quality education, advanced technology, an inclusive economy, and equal opportunities.
Kazakhstan’s place in a rapidly changing world
When asked about the meaning of the narrow corridor, Tukumov explained that it represents the balance between preserving traditions and embracing modernization. He emphasized that Kazakhstan’s geographic position should be considered an advantage rather than a constraint.
“We have been blessed with vast territory, often described in foreign policy discourse as ‘squeezed between China and Russia.’ But what if we see it differently? We are not trapped—we have direct access to two major global powers and, through them, to the world’s oceans,” he said.
“We actually have many opportunities within this so-called narrow corridor. The real question is whether we can seize them. We may not have another 33 years to keep experimenting. The challenge is to move beyond a perpetual state of transition—because just as some young people remain ‘promising’ until retirement, a nation cannot afford to remain in an endless phase of unrealized potential,” he added.
Technological change and global competition
Talgat Kaliyev, a director of the Institute of Applied Ethnopolitical Studies, highlighted the unprecedented speed of technological change and the difficulty of predicting future risks and opportunities.
From left to right: Talgat Kaliyev, Yerkin Tukumov and Aigul Zabirova. Photo credit: Nagima Abuova / The Astana Times
“It is extremely complicated to predict both tomorrow’s risks and opportunities. That is why this work is so valuable. It analyzes the risks and pressures shaping our country’s current situation, which is neither good nor bad but a product of past challenges,” said Kaliyev.
Kaliyev noted that constructing an image of the future is a complex process that demands a unique vision and the ability to synthesize multiple influences.
“Most local and international research focuses on a single field. In contrast, this work examines an interconnected system—a demanding and meticulous process that requires flexibility of thought,” he added.
Kaliyev also noted that the concept of a narrow corridor reflects both intense global competition and the compressed timeframe for decision-making.
“Processes that once took five to ten years now unfold in a single year. Audience attention spans have significantly shortened, and the world is experiencing unprecedented levels of information stress. While information once took time to spread, today it circulates instantly. This narrow corridor limits both the range of available choices and the time to act,” he said.
Economic and political considerations
Aigul Zabirova, a chief researcher at the KazISS public opinion monitoring department, emphasized the book’s analysis of global and national stress factors, including climate change, nuclear conflict, AI-driven inequality, pandemics and demographic shifts. She highlighted the work’s political-economic perspective, particularly its examination of declining capital investment in the past decade, linking it to corruption and judicial inefficiencies.
Tukumov’s monograph, published in Kazakh, Russian, and English, explores key global challenges and opportunities. Photo credit: Nagima Abuova / The Astana Times
Zabirova highlighted three key conditions for progress mentioned in the book: an honest assessment of the past, the importance of private property, and the necessity of a strong state.
“As expected for a work of this genre, the author presents his own scenario as the optimal path for Kazakhstan’s development. He emphasizes the need for a constant balance between state power and society, noting that an overly strong state leads to autocracy, while a weakened one risks anarchy,” she said.
Zabirova also spotlighted the book’s use of primary sources, statistical and empirical data, and personal reflections, which add credibility and depth.
“What makes it particularly engaging for younger readers is its connection to the author’s own biography, allowing for a deeply personal engagement with the subject. Despite its academic nature, the book remains accessible, striking a balance between scholarly rigor and readability, ensuring it appeals to both experts and those newly interested in Kazakhstan,” said Zabirova.
