ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s economy grew 5.1% this year, driven entirely by its non-oil sector, while exports of processed goods rose 10.2% to US$23.3 billion from January to November 2024. Experts shared insights with Kazinform news agency on the factors behind this growth and whether it can continue in 2025.
Photo credit: ortcom.kz
Senior Partner at the Center for Strategic Initiatives Olzhas Khudaibergenov expressed optimism about the country’s growth trajectory.
Olzhas Khudaibergenov, the senior partner at the Center for Strategic Initiatives. Photo credit: Khudaibergenov’s personal archieve.
“Kazakhstan has the potential for double-digit growth if it treats domestic and foreign investors properly. There is significant interest in investing in Kazakhstan from China, the Middle East, Europe, the United States, and Russia. Reducing bureaucracy could double current growth rates and attract even more investments,” he said.
He pointed to the expansion of manufacturing, industrial construction, and increased freight transport through Kazakhstan, with these sectors growing 6-8% this year.
Arman Baiganov, a financial advisor at R-Finance, highlighted agriculture and light industry as key contributors to growth.
“Manufacturing drove growth this year due to a decline in oil and commodity prices. Agriculture, construction, and trade were leading sectors, especially as Kazakhstan became a transit hub for supplies to Russia,” said Baiganov. “I believe non-oil sector growth will continue next year as raw material prices may remain stable.”
He added that effective government monitoring of investments could further enhance economic performance.
Supporting domestic producers
Timur Aisautov. Photo credit: kaznu.kz.
Economist Timur Aisautov emphasized the government’s efforts to protect domestic producers from external competition, suggesting this focus could boost growth to 6-7%.
“Preliminary data show GDP growth of 4.4% this year, possibly reaching 5% by year’s end. While this is a solid post-pandemic recovery, it falls short of Kazakhstan’s true potential. The country’s abundant resources, small population, skilled workforce, and wealth of natural assets could support much higher growth rates,” he said.
Aisautov predicted that if global crises or trade wars are avoided and logistics chains remain stable, Kazakhstan could maintain 4-5% growth in the coming years, though doubling GDP by 2029 is unlikely.
Drawing parallels with China’s decades-long average growth of 10%, Aisautov suggested that Kazakhstan could accelerate its development by adopting new economic policies.
“To achieve dynamic growth, we need to increase the value-added tax (VAT) to protect local producers from imports and strengthen measures to prevent capital outflow,” he said.
