ALMATY – Europe’s oil market is tightening sharply, defying expectations of a global surplus, as reduced shipments from Kazakhstan via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) emerge as the single most significant short-term disruption to regional supply, according to Bloomberg.
Oil drilling and pipelines. Photo credit: Gary Kavanagh / Getty Images
“Smaller flows of Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend, as well as disruptions in Libya and some North Sea fields, have pushed up physical prices in the North Sea and Mediterranean,” reads the article published on Jan. 14.
According to the agency, although global oil markets were affected by geopolitical risks in Iran and Venezuela, Kazakhstan has had the most immediate disruption. CPC, which transports nearly 80% of Kazakh oil, has been severely impacted by various factors, including adverse weather and several drone attacks, the article said.
“Those curbs are significant in volume – loadings are down almost half from their original plan this month – but they’re also happening at an important time and place. The reduction in Kazakh barrels is tightening the regions most exposed to benchmark futures prices. And it’s also trimming what is expected to be a sizable oversupply in the early part of 2026,” writes Bloomberg.
CPC Blend loadings were cut by 45% compared to the initial plan, leaving January volumes around 900,000 barrels a day lower than their September peak.
This reduction has directly tightened the supply of light, sweet crude in Europe, the grades most closely linked to benchmark pricing. The timing and location of the CPC disruption have amplified its effect as Europe is the region most exposed to benchmark-linked crude, and the loss of Kazakh barrels has intensified pressure precisely where futures-based pricing is most sensitive.
While Europe faces a deficit of light, low-sulfur crude, heavier and sour grades remain in oversupply globally. Increased production from OPEC+ and rising flows of discounted Venezuelan oil into Asia have swollen the availability of heavier barrels, deepening the quality divide.
As weather conditions improve and maintenance work concludes, exports of CPC Blend are expected to recover to around 1.5 million barrels per day in February, close to normal levels. Until then, Europe’s oil market remains tight, underscoring how pivotal Kazakh crude flows through the CPC have become for regional balance.
