ALMATY – Despite a downgrade in global economic prospects, Kazakhstan is expected to maintain solid growth momentum, according to the latest April 14 report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the IMF has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, the outlook for Kazakhstan remains comparatively strong, highlighting the country’s resilience amid mounting external challenges.
Photo credit: International Monetary Fund.
The revised figures were published in the World Economic Outlook, which also kept its 2027 global growth projection unchanged at 3.2%. The downgrade reflects a broader slowdown from an estimated 3.4% growth in 2025, as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty weigh on global performance.
Global outlook adjusted amid uncertainty
In response to the evolving situation in the Middle East, the IMF has replaced its standard baseline forecast with a “reference scenario.” This approach accounts for the economic effects of ongoing conflict, assuming it remains limited in scope and gradually subsides by mid-2026.
Before the escalation, projections based on bottom-up estimates had pointed to stronger global growth of 3.4% in 2026. However, disruptions to energy markets and trade flows have since altered the outlook.
Inflation and downside risks
According to the report, global inflation is now projected to reach 4.4% in 2026 before easing to 3.7% in 2027. At the same time, risks remain elevated.
Under a more adverse scenario involving prolonged energy price increases, global growth could slow further to 2.5%, while inflation may rise to 5.4%. In a more severe case, particularly if energy infrastructure is affected, growth could fall to around 2%, with inflation exceeding 6% by 2027.
As experts say, emerging markets and developing economies are expected to bear the brunt of these shocks, facing impacts nearly twice as large as those experienced by advanced economies.
Kazakhstan’s growth remains robust
In contrast to the global slowdown, Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, underscoring a sustainable economy even in a challenging external environment.
However, inflationary pressures persist. The IMF estimates average inflation in Kazakhstan at 10.7% in 2026 and 10.1% in 2027, indicating that price stability remains a key concern for policymakers.
Policy focus: stability and adaptability
The IMF emphasizes that navigating current global conditions will require a balanced and coordinated policy approach. Governments are encouraged to safeguard fiscal sustainability, while central banks must remain vigilant in anchoring inflation expectations.
Policymakers may need to exercise flexibility in responding to supply shocks, provided inflation expectations remain stable. At the same time, transparent communication and strong institutional independence will be essential to maintaining credibility.
