AKTAU — I have been coming to Aktau, a city on Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast, since I was a child. It is where I was born and where most of my family still lives. I spent countless summers splashing in the water, walking the shoreline, and staring out from my grandmother’s apartment window.
Saulet Tanirbergen.
Now, as I walk the shore, I see nothing but dry, cracked ground, exposed rock, and the carcasses of dead seals and gulls. For at least the past six years, the Caspian Sea has been visibly retreating. Considered to be the world’s largest lake, the Caspian Sea is a remnant of the ancient Paratethys Sea and covers an area larger than Germany. According to researchers, the sea level dropped by 10 centimeters annually from 2006 to 2021, shrinking by approximately 15,000 square kilometers — mostly along the northeastern coast near Aktau. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology estimates the loss could be as high as 22,000 square kilometers.
The Caspian Sea is bordered by five countries: Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. It shapes the lives of those along its coast. Its water sustains communities, its wild sturgeon feed locals and support a global caviar trade, and its vast oil and gas reserves power economies — particularly those of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. In fact, the world’s first oil well was drilled in Bibi-Heybat, near Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku.
Over-extraction of oil and gas is considered one of the causes of the sea’s decline. It also indirectly drives another pressure point: population growth in cities like Aktau. Between 2021 and 2022, the city’s population grew from about 200,000 to 270,000 as more people moved in from surrounding areas. The city continues to grow, with multiple high-rise apartment complexes in the process of construction. The region’s desalination facilities are struggling to keep up. Water scarcity has long plagued Mangystau, but six new desalination plants currently under construction may offer short-term relief — at the environment’s expense.
Another significant factor in the depression of the sea is the construction of reservoirs and dams along the Volga River, which supplies the Caspian with about 80% of its inflow. Russia has built roughly 40 dams along the Volga, with 18 more underway. Following its invasion of Ukraine and subsequent international sanctions, Russia has increased its reliance on domestic agriculture — drawing heavily on Volga water for irrigation.
Climate change adds to the crisis. Rising global temperatures have disrupted the water cycle, increasing evaporation while reducing precipitation. The sea’s delicate balance is tipping. This is part of a larger trend of declining water levels of landlocked seas and lake systems around the world, which has received significantly less attention than the rise in the global sea level.
The environmental consequences of the ‘shrinking sea’ are devastating. Caspian seals, an endangered species found only in this sea, have suffered a population drop of roughly 90% since the early 20th century. Estimates suggest only 75,000 to 270,000 seals remain, in stark contrast to over a million seals that once inhabited the sea. Offshore drilling, water pollution, and seismic exploration all contribute to the decline, according to a member of the regional environmental council.
In 2022, more than 250,000 seal carcasses were discovered along Russia’s Dagestan coast. Kazakh officials attributed the mass die-off to viral pneumonia, likely triggered by weakened immune systems. I personally saw four seal carcasses last weekend alone, all in different stages of decay. One was clearly a newborn that had died only hours earlier. Diminished ice coverage in the northern basin — a vital breeding ground for the seals — is making matters worse.
Despite widespread concern, action remains limited. Some experts predict the Caspian Sea could drop another 9 to 18 meters (30 to 59 feet) by the end of the century. All of this is happening alongside announcements that Kazakhstan seeks to expand its maritime trade through Aktau. But, there is only so much dredging one could do to keep the ports operating before the water completely disappears. This would render billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure useless. Communities would collapse, species would vanish, and regional geopolitics would shift dramatically.
The Caspian Sea cannot follow in the footsteps of the Aral Sea. Political leaders must act — together — before it’s too late.
The author is Saulet Tanirbergen, a communications intern at the United Nations ESCAP in Thailand. Saulet graduated from the University College London and The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.
