ASTANA — The world’s identified uranium reserves could run out by 2080, according to a new report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In an analytical article by Kazinform, experts weighed in on the forecast and the broader implications for global energy security and Kazakhstan’s uranium sector.
Collage is created by The Astana Times/ Fatima Kemelova.
The IAEA’s Red Book, published last month, projects that all known uranium reserves could be exhausted within six decades. This projection coincides with a renewed surge in nuclear energy interest, echoing the oil crises of the 1970s.
Citing the Financial Times, the report notes that since 2020, global investment in nuclear energy has grown by 50% annually. Nuclear capacity is expected to increase by 130% by 2050. At this pace, existing uranium reserves may be depleted by 2080.
Where are the world’s uranium reserves?
According to the IAEA, there were eight million tons of identified uranium resources in 2023. Australia holds the largest share with 1.7 million tons, followed by Kazakhstan with 900,000 tons, and Canada with 600,000 tons. Canada’s uranium is also considered high quality. Russia possesses approximately 500,000 tons, while Namibia and Uzbekistan each hold around 200,000 tons.
These figures represent only the technologically recoverable uranium, not the total geological potential.
Demand growth and major consumers
The United States is currently the largest uranium consumer, accounting for 60% of global enriched uranium imports. China, Russia and France follow closely. France, in particular, generates approximately 80% of its electricity from nuclear energy.
Several countries, including the U.S., the United Kingdom and South Korea, have announced plans to expand nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Major tech companies such as Microsoft and Amazon are also investing in nuclear energy to meet the soaring power demands of data centers and artificial intelligence systems.
Kazakhstan’s role in global supply
Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium supplier, accounting for 43% of the global market. In recent years, the country has increased uranium exports to Russia and China while reducing shipments to the U.S. and Europe.
In 2022, Kazakhstan’s uranium production exceeded the combined output of Canada, Namibia, Australia and Uzbekistan. In 2024, the production rose by another 10%, from 21,112 tons in 2023 to 23,270 tons. However, exports fell by 8% last year, totaling 16,600 tons.
Despite the drop in sales volume, Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s national atomic company, doubled its net profit in 2024 to 1.13 trillion tenge (US$2.22 billion). The average selling price per pound (0.45 kilogram) of uranium was $55.
Are uranium reserves truly finite?
Energy expert Abzal Narymbetov emphasized that the IAEA forecast should be viewed as provisional. He noted that additional uranium reserves may be discovered before 2080 and pointed to ongoing exploration of potential deposits.
Abzal Narymbetov. Photo credit: Narymbetov’s Instagram account
“Marion King Hubbert, a geophysicist from the last century, said that oil would run out by 1978. But it has been over 50 years since then,” said Narymbetov.
“What matters here is that everything that reaches its peak eventually begins to decline. But oil has held its ground due to technological advances. Innovations and the development of new methods have helped replenish reserves. There are now forecasts suggesting that oil could run out by 2040. Experts who once predicted oil depletion in 2019-2020 have since withdrawn their forecasts,” he added.
According to Narymbetov, resource availability is closely tied to market dynamics. While oil prices fluctuate, they generally remain stable, supporting continued production. Uranium prices, for example, dropped in 2000 but are now rising again. As a result, forecasts about depletion should be seen as part of a larger economic cycle.
While the IAEA estimates Kazakhstan’s reserves at 900,000 tons, Narymbetov noted that the combined reports of mining companies indicate approximately 567,000 tons, with 53% (301,000 tons) belonging to Kazatomprom. Russia’s Rosatom holds 25% (141,000 tons), and the rest is controlled by Canadian, Chinese, French and Japanese companies.
In terms of undiscovered potential reserves, Kazatomprom again leads with 509,000 tons, followed by Rosatom with 193,000 tons. Companies from the four other countries hold an estimated 148,000 tons combined.
“Global reserves are indeed declining, and this will be an important topic for future discussion. It’s also worth noting that 10 years ago, Kazatomprom made a mistake: by increasing uranium supply to the market, the company drove prices down. Other countries may have taken that lesson into account and are now preserving their potential reserves,” said Narymbetov.
He added that energy-hungry technologies such as AI and data processing require massive amounts of electricity. As a result, experimental modular reactors are being developed. These are still future projects, but they illustrate how closely energy access is tied to technological progress.
“For humanity, uranium may be even more important than oil. Why? Oil is not primarily used to generate energy. Most of it is refined into fuel. If oil runs out, gas could take its place. But uranium is a direct source of energy, which is why the future of humanity depends on it,” he said.
Seawater uranium and strategic interests
Oil and gas industry expert Askar Ismailov also expressed skepticism about the urgency of uranium depletion. He said the oil era, let alone the uranium era, will not end within the next 20 to 30 years. With the global oil market valued at over $3 trillion, countries will not abandon it until capital investments are recovered.
Ismailov emphasized that oil is more than a raw material – it supports an entire ecosystem of specialized services.
Askar Ismailov. Photo credit: Kazinform
“These types of services are highly specialized and cannot be applied to other sectors. For example, subsea wellhead equipment is used exclusively at offshore oil fields. And there are many more examples like this,” said Ismailov.
“In my view, the recent uranium forecasts seem more like a PR campaign to ease sanctions on Russian uranium. That is because Russia produces the majority of the world’s enriched uranium. Without it, many nuclear power plants in the West would be forced to shut down,” he added.
Ismailov also highlighted China’s efforts to extract uranium from seawater, where an estimated 4.5 billion tons are dissolved. If brought to industrial scale, this method could supply uranium for thousands of years. For now, the technology remains experimental.
On the topic of renewables, he noted that affordability and stability remain major challenges.
“Considering that most of the world’s population has low income, there will not be strong demand for such energy sources,” he said.
