ASTANA – There are no winners in a trade war, according to experts attending a panel session titled Trade as a Weapon: The Future of Economic Statecraft, during the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025 on May 29. High tariffs imposed by the U.S. on its trading partners, the war in Ukraine, and other geopolitical tensions are contributing to a more fragmented world driven by zero-sum dynamics — a scenario that should be avoided, panel participants agreed.
Trade as a Weapon: The Future of Economic Statecraft panel session at AIF 2025. Photo credit: AIF press service
How nations used trade to exert influence
Daniel F. Runde, senior vice-president and director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), shared historical examples of how trade has been used as a geopolitical weapon, including instances from the Central Asian region.
Daniel F. Runde. Photo credit: AIF press service
One particular example, related to the Central Asian region, is the Jackson-Vanik amendment introduced in 1974 to pressure the Soviet Union on human rights issues, specifically to allow free emigration of Jews and other religious dissidents. It linked trade benefits to the Soviet Union’s willingness to permit citizens to leave the country. The amendment was successful in helping many people emigrate to the United States and Israel during the Cold War.
“But the bad news is the Soviet Union ended more than 35 years ago, and Russia, which was sort of the inheritor of a lot of the Soviet Union stuff, got released from Jackson-Vanik, but a number of Central Asian countries have been kind of trapped in this time warp of being on the Jackson-Vanik ‘bad list.’ Every year, they have to get a waiver. So that’s an example of as trade as a weapon,” said Runde.
As another example of trade being used as a weapon, Runde pointed to how Russia has leveraged energy, particularly natural gas, as a tool of influence over Europe and other regions.
The new reality of global trade
According to Lars-Hendrik Röller, founder and chair of the Berlin Global Dialogue, a key question remains on how to use trade power: to undermine the multilateral trading system, or to strengthen and promote it.
“What we’ve done in the past, as with the example of the United States, they used their power to open up markets, to break protectionist regimes, but now they are doing it the other way. And I think that shown from example of other countries, national security is becoming more important,” he said.
Timur Turlov. Photo credit: AIF press service
“Protection is another big word that is also becoming more important. And the rest of the world is actually following suit, because we’re all going down that route into a world where we’re all in it for ourselves. It’s the big ones doing trades with the big ones,” he added.
Timur Turlov, Kazakh businessman and Chief Executive Officer of Freedom Holding, said that the excessive uncertainty in global markets caused by tariffs might affect the trust in those countries. However, he noted that this volatility could present an opportunity for developing countries to leverage the situation to their advantage and stimulate their own economic growth.
“I think the key problem of all these trade wars is disruption of trust and of confidence, which, of course, not yet disrupted because it’s been built over a very long period of time. The United States and European Union spent a lot of time creating a reputation of a predictable partner with stable rules and regulations. (…) and in my opinion, it’s very crucial to keep this confidence in international relationships,” said Turlov.
“But if we abuse that confidence long enough, it will be very difficult to restore that confidence afterwards. In my opinion, we see that a lot of Asian countries, now they have a much younger population, and much more tech-optimistic people at the end of the day. And that’s a big driver of productivity in these countries. I believe that digitalization can benefit these early adopters, maybe faster than the original developers of this technology,” he said.
What can become Kazakhstan’s next major trade item?
Speaking to The Astana Times, Turlov shared his perspective on what could become Kazakhstan’s next major export, as the country looks beyond its traditional reliance on the oil and gas industry.
“It’s services. Let’s admit that the economy will be almost completely composed of services in a few decades. The industry is being suppressed, and only services will be left. This is simply a global trend that we are going through. The productivity is increasing rapidly, and as it does, the part of the economy that needs to be produced is constantly decreasing. Because the number of people is decreasing, and the price of the products is decreasing. As a result, both the share of industry in the economy and the value of its output are falling. That’s why I don’t see any long-term value in production,” he said.
“In fact, one of the main reason everyone wants metal processing is because they want it done cheaply. No one’s willing to pay more than what is costs in China. That’s the only reason why there is no big processing here, because in China, very big processing is being built, and it’s very cheap. Considering that we don’t have such a scale as they do, that is, If we build a smaller processing facility, it won’t be competitive — no one will want to buy from us at higher prices,” he said.
The future lies broadly in IT services, according to Turlov, including fintech, government digitalization, and related sectors that have the potential to generate significant economic value. Kazakhstan is well-positioned to succeed in this transformation, with the necessary talent, infrastructure, and ambition to lead in the digital era, he said.
The general partner and sponsors of the Astana International Forum are the Samruk Kazyna National Welfare Fund, ERG and Freedom Bank Kazakhstan. The official sponsors are Kazakhmys, Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V., KAZ Minerals, North Caspian Operating Company, Tengizchevroil, Alatau City, Baiterek Holding, VISA, Stepnogorsk Bearing Plant, Caspian Oil, Qarmet and RG Gold.
