In 2024, Kazakhstan aimed to demonstrate increasing independence and a persistent drive to strengthen its international status through its foreign policy. Amid global turbulence, resource competitions, and the rivalry of major power centers, Astana seeks to build a multivector strategy aimed at ensuring national security, economic stability, and the expansion of its diplomatic arsenal.
Highlighted trends—recognition of Kazakhstan as a middle power, growing interest from major players in rare earth metals, competition among cooperation formats in Central Asia, multivector nuclear diplomacy, and the principle of a successful Central Asia is a successful Kazakhstan—clearly demonstrate how the country strives to balance various external stakeholders. As a result, 2024 became a period of affirming Kazakhstan as a key strategic actor in Central Asia.
Kazakhstan as a middle power: consolidating strategic status
In 2024, Kazakhstan firmly established itself as a middle power, a key player between major power centers. Recognition by authoritative analytical institutes and Kazakhstan’s inclusion among middle-ranking countries alongside states such as Türkiye, India, or Brazil indicate the formation of a new status, based on the following factors:
Economic Foundation: Kazakhstan continues to lead Central Asia in terms of economic development, transforming from a recipient of aid into an independent development donor, particularly through the Kazakhstan Agency of International Development (KazAID). Investment attractiveness, especially for the EU and other Western partners, strengthens the economic base of its foreign policy.
Multivector Approach: By balancing relations with Russia and China while expanding ties with the EU, the USA, and other global players, Kazakhstan aims to strengthen its foreign policy autonomy. It seeks to demonstrate its capacity for “pragmatic multivectority,” enhancing resilience against external pressure.
Regional Leadership and Initiatives: Active participation in mediation, fostering dialogue among neighbors, and promoting major infrastructure projects position Kazakhstan as the “backbone of Eurasia,” setting the agenda in the region.
This resulted in strengthening Kazakhstan’s role as a mediator and a constructive participant in international processes, while also expanding opportunities for diplomatic maneuvering amid reduced Western presence and intensified geopolitical competition.
Interest in rare earth metals: Key to a technological future
In 2024, Kazakhstan’s role as an alternative supplier of rare earth and strategic minerals continued to grow. Considering the current realities in Central Asia, Kazakhstan is the most open to cooperation with external players in this sector. The world, striving to diversify sources of critical resources, is turning its attention to Kazakhstan in the context of reducing dependence on China and Russia.
Developing Strategic Partnerships with the EU and USA: Signing memorandums of understanding with the EU, participating in C5+1 formats, and agreements with the UK, Germany, and other European countries on the supply of critical minerals strengthen Kazakhstan’s position. It becomes an important link in the formation of global supply chains.
Competition and Opportunities: Increasing investments from Western countries willing to develop the processing of rare earth metals in Kazakhstan create opportunities for technology transfer and increasing local added value. However, developing its own potential in this sector requires a delicate balance between economic benefits and political commitments.
Strategic Sustainability: Betting on rare earth metals is the “new oil” for Kazakhstan. By developing this sector, the country enhances its significance in the global technological race, ensuring long-term dividends in the form of investments, partnerships and access to new technologies.
Competing cooperation formats in Central Asia: Balancing interests
In 2024, competition for institutional interaction formats in Central Asia intensified. The region became an arena for rivalry among the USA, China, the EU, Russia, and other actors offering various models of interaction—from the C5+1 with the USA to China – Central Asia initiatives.
Delegating Institutionalization: Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, often allow external players to drive the creation of dialogue platforms. This reflects the desire of regional countries to benefit from external initiatives while maintaining the ability to choose their partners.
Role of Kazakhstan: Astana increasingly positions itself as a mediator and balancer of external interests. At the same time, Kazakhstan seeks to strengthen its own role in developing regional solutions, especially on issues of security, transportation and logistics, energy and trade.
Regional Identity: Despite the absence of unified supranational structures, Kazakhstan promotes the idea that “A Successful Central Asia is a Successful Kazakhstan.” This underscores the understanding that regional stability, shared problem-solving, and economic interconnectivity create favorable conditions for advancing national interests.
Multivector nuclear diplomacy: Competing suppliers and forming a consortium
The year saw a significant shift: Kazakhstan began forming an international consortium to build its first nuclear power plant (NPP). Following a referendum demonstrating support for nuclear energy, the country faces several external contenders—China, Russia, France, South Korea, and the USA with its small modular reactor technologies.
Balancing Interests and Technologies: Seeking to avoid dependence on a single supplier, Kazakhstan is considering projects involving multiple countries. Such nuclear multivectority minimizes risks and enhances the ability to choose the best conditions.
Strengthening Status: Negotiations on the nuclear project transform Kazakhstan from a “uranium supplier” to an active player in the global nuclear market. Multivector nuclear diplomacy aligns with the logic of a “middle power”—leveraging competition of global players to extract maximum benefits and strengthen energy sovereignty.
Systemic Effect: Forming a consortium is not just a technological choice but also a political gesture. It reinforces Kazakhstan’s position as a responsible member of the nuclear club, promoting new standards of safety, localization and technology transfer.
Regional stability priority
Signing alliance agreements with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and expanding similar documents with the Kyrgyz Republic demonstrate the prioritization of the regional vector. The main areas are security, economy, transportation, water resources, energy and cultural and humanitarian ties.
Security and Economy as the Foundation: Alliance agreements establish readiness for joint responses to external threats and create a legal basis for expanding trade links, transport corridors and energy projects. This contributes to transforming Central Asia into a more cohesive and sustainable economic-political space.
Without the Term “Integration,” but with an Emphasis on Dialogue: Kazakhstan deliberately avoids the term “integration,” preferring to emphasize expanding interaction and dialogue. This approach ensures flexibility in its relationships, allowing it to operate outside the rigid frameworks of supranational structures.
The stability and prosperity of neighbors directly impact Kazakhstan’s own position. The formula “A Successful Central Asia is a Successful Kazakhstan” reflects the understanding that intra-regional cooperation strengthens the country, its economy, security and international authority.
Kazakhstan’s foreign policy in 2024 saw a qualitative shift towards a more independent and multidimensional diplomacy. Recognition as a middle power, growing interest in the country’s resource potential, strengthening its own role in regional formats, implementing a multivector approach in nuclear energy, and focusing on collective security and regional prosperity—all these form a new roadmap of foreign policy priorities.
Kazakhstan leverages global competition, turning geopolitical challenges into opportunities. At the intersection of the interests of leading powers, the country confidently defends its own agenda—from strengthening the economic foundation and developing critical resources to enhancing regional stability. As a result, the multivector strategy, supported by the status of a middle power and diverse strategic partnerships, allows Kazakhstan to look confidently to the future, enhancing its role in the international system.
The author is Eldaniz Gusseinov, a non-resident research fellow at Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies of the Ibn Haldun University, Istanbul.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.
