ASTANA — The session, Navigating Global Influence: Strategic Responses, that took place at the Astana Think Tank Forum on Oct. 16 in the Kazakh capital, explored how middle powers can expand their influence and respond to global challenges. The session brought together notable experts, including Darren Spinck, Associate Fellow, Henry Jackson Society, Dr. Kamran Bokhari, Senior Director, Eurasian Security and Prosperity at the New Lines Institute, (US), and Dorothée Schmid, Senior Research Fellow – Head of Turkiye and Middle East Program, French Institute of International Relations.
From left to right: Moderated by Lincoln, Senior Fellow at the Fletcher School’s Centre for International Law & Governance, Tufts University, Sajjanhar, President of the Institute of Global Studies, India, Schmid, Senior Research Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations, Bokhari, Senior Director of Eurasian Security and Prosperity at the New Lines Institute, Spinck, Associate Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, Zhang Ning, Deputy Director at the BRI Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Photo credit: The Astana Times
Kazakhstan’s role in the evolving world order
One of the key panelists, Spinck, focused on Kazakhstan’s potential to stabilize global supply chains and facilitate multilateral ties. According to Spinck, Kazakhstan’s unique geopolitical positioning enables the country to help shape a more balanced and stable multipolar world, particularly in light of recent global disruptions.
He pointed out two major factors contributing to the rise of middle powers, the first being the diminishing influence of the US-led unipolar system. Spinck noted that while many attribute this shift to the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan under the Biden administration, the move toward multipolarity had been underway for years. He said that a key reason for this transition was Washington’s overuse of economic policies, such as the weaponization of the US dollar and an increase in sanctions. According to him, between 2001 and 2021, sanctions grew by an astonishing 933%, leading many countries to seek alternatives to US-led economic systems.
Spinck explained that this shift led to parallel economies, including China’s dual circulation economic model and growing de-dollarization efforts. He also discussed the emergence of separate economic spheres—those within and outside the sanction regime.
According to Spinck, the second factor is the chaotic global environment that has emerged as a result of the multipolar shift. He named rising tensions in the Middle East and escalating competition between global powers as significant contributors to the evolving geopolitical landscape. These factors allow countries like Kazakhstan to step up and play a stabilizing role in the global order.
Spinck emphasized that the intensifying competition between great powers could exacerbate market distortions and fuel inflationary pressures. He specifically pointed to restrictions on access to critical minerals and rare earth elements, which are vital for manufacturing modern technologies. He warned that the weaponization of supply chains by larger powers could further destabilize the global economy. With its rich deposits of rare earth elements, Kazakhstan is well-positioned to mitigate these risks.
“By insulating supply chains from external pressures and increasing exports of these vital resources, Kazakhstan can help stabilize the global market for rare earth elements and critical minerals,” Spinck said.
“The past five years and the decades ahead have illustrated and will continue to illustrate how supply chain resiliency is synonymous with economic security, and economic security is fundamental to national security, and Kazakhstan will play a role in helping ensure this for the world,” he concluded.
Understanding the strategies of middle powers
In his remarks, Bokhari discussed the broader strategies that middle powers employ to navigate global influence. According to Bokhari, middle powers often prioritize cooperation, but they are ultimately driven by national interests.
“All states have imperatives—things they must accomplish—and they face constraints that either prevent or hinder their progress toward achieving those goals. The strategies of power, in this case the strategies of middle powers, can also be applied to great or even smaller ones,” he said.
This holds true for middle powers as much as it does for larger or smaller states.
Bokhari also noted that the strategies of the middle powers are shaped by their regime type. Democratic middle powers, for example, may behave differently from authoritarian ones. Also, the influence of a middle power largely depends on the context in which it operates. According to him, the strategic environment of a middle power plays a crucial role in shaping its behavior, which can vary from one situation to another.
Bokhari provided examples of middle powers with divergent approaches to global influence, including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. He also noted that India is transitioning from a middle power to a more prominent global player due to its significant economic growth.
He stressed that while some middle powers are rising, others, like Pakistan, are in decline. Bokhari underscored the importance of having a realistic understanding of the constraints middle powers face, noting that “states do what they must, not what they want.” He emphasized the need for pragmatic expectations when discussing the role of middle powers in shaping a cooperative global system.
The role of responsibility in power
Schmid, in her perspective, identified demography, technological breakthroughs, and wars as key factors driving changes in global power hierarchies. She also highlighted the importance of responsibility in the exercise of power. According to her, emerging middle powers must demonstrate responsibility if they wish to be co-opted by more established powers.
“I think what we see in this competition between the old power and the new power is that the old power has many constraints due to the accumulation of history and instruments and perhaps fewer resources to devote to it, making it harder to navigate. The new power, on the other hand, is very versatile and agile, but it will only be trusted and co-opted as an important middle power by others when it demonstrates responsibility and acts accordingly,” she said.
Schmid said that today’s list of middle powers demonstrates a drastic change in how countries are perceived, with some countries now seen as emerging global players that may not have been considered such in the past.
“I was quite surprised to hear some of the countries we included on the list, some perhaps as intermediate global powers or as rising middle powers. In the end, I think membership in the ‘club’ also depends on how others perceive you. Do you need to be co-opted, or should you impose yourself? This is about strategies—do middle powers have a different, more peaceful and cooperative way of reaching the top of the hierarchy?” she said.
The session at the Astana Think Tank Forum revealed that the world is entering an era in which middle powers like Kazakhstan can profoundly impact global stability and prosperity. Whether through stabilizing supply chains, navigating complex geopolitical environments, or demonstrating responsible leadership, these countries are increasingly shaping the future of the international order.
It underscored that middle powers are not a homogenous group—they vary significantly in their strategies, regimes, and capacities. However, what unites them is their ability to influence global events in ways that can both stabilize and transform the world.
The sponsors of the Astana Think Tank Forum are ERG, Kazakhmys Corporation and Central-Asian Institute of Environmental Research (CAIER).
