ASTANA – Members of the National Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) estimate the base rate to be 11.9% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, according to the National Bank’s forecasts on the trajectory of the base rate for 2024-2026 released on Sept. 9.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan. Photo credit: exk.kz
The Monetary Policy Report, which is published quarterly four times a year, will include an assessment of the base rate’s future path, along with gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation forecasts.
According to the forecast, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth for the first half of 2024 continued to slow, reaching 3.2%. The deceleration in economic growth was due to the slowdown in the mining sector and slower growth in the services sector. Forecasts suggest that GDP growth will be 3.5-4.5% in 2024, 5.0-6.0% in 2025, and 4.9-5.9% in 2026.
The current inflation trends for the first half of 2024 align with the National Bank’s forecasts. At the same time, inflationary pressures within the economy are increasing due to the growing volume of fiscal stimulus, continued tariff hikes as part of the housing and utility sector reforms, sustained domestic demand, and heightened inflation expectations.
Implementing a moderately tight monetary policy is expected to bring core inflation—which excludes changes in housing and utility service prices and fuel prices—down to 5% by 2026. As a result, inflation is projected to be between 7.5-9.5% in 2024, 5.5-7.5% in 2025, and 5-7% in 2026.
The MPC of the National Bank has decided to maintain the base rate at 14.25% on Aug. 29.
