ASTANA –The National Bank of Kazakhstan released its latest macroeconomic survey on Aug. 21, revealing key forecasts and expectations from expert respondents. The survey, which includes insights from professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations, and rating agencies, highlighted several important trends for Kazakhstan’s economy.
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Respondents predict that Brent crude oil prices will average $83.5 per barrel in 2024, slightly decreasing to $80 per barrel for 2025-2026. Economic growth forecasts for Kazakhstan have been adjusted downward, with expectations of 4.0% growth in 2024 and 4.4% in 2026. The forecast for 2025 remains steady at 5.0%.
Inflation is projected to be 8.0% in 2024, with a gradual decrease to 6.9% in 2025 and 6.0% by 2026. The base rate, a key monetary policy tool, is expected to rise slightly to 14.5% in 2024, with a further increase to 11.9% in 2025. For 2026, the base rate is anticipated to remain unchanged.
In terms of trade, the forecast for Kazakhstan’s export of goods and services in 2024 has been revised upward to $89.6 billion, but subsequent years show a decrease, with estimates at $86 billion in 2025 and $85.6 billion in 2026. Import volumes are expected to rise to $74.1 billion in 2024, with a slight decrease in 2025 to $70.0 billion and stability at $73.0 billion in 2026.
Exchange rates have also been adjusted, with the tenge expected to average 461.2 per U.S. dollar in 2024, weakening further to 479.0 in 2025 and 492.0 in 2026. The potential GDP growth rate over a 5-year horizon is projected to average 4.5%, although forecasts vary widely due to ongoing uncertainties in the global and domestic economic environment.
The survey serves as a key tool for enhancing communication between the National Bank and professional market participants, though it does not represent the official forecasts of the National Bank itself.
