ASTANA – The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided on Aug. 29 to keep the base rate at 14.25% with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, reported the bank’s press service.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan. Photo credit: akipress.com
Annual inflation rose to 8.6% in July, which aligns with the NBK’s forecast trajectory. The current acceleration of inflation is attributed to a significant increase in the cost of market services, higher prices in the manufacturing industry, and a weakening of the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the decline in agricultural product prices has slowed.
Global inflation continues to decrease. Cereal prices fell in July due to seasonally stronger supplies in the Northern Hemisphere and improved harvest expectations amid favorable weather conditions. Cereal prices are expected to continue their gradual decline.
The inflation forecast for 2024-2025 remains at 7.5-9.5% and 5.5-7.5%, respectively. In 2026, inflation is expected to be at 5-7%. A moderately tight monetary policy will help slow core inflation to 5% in 2026.
Kazakhstan’s economic growth forecast has been maintained at 3.5-4.5% for 2024 and 4.9-5.9% for 2026. The 2025 growth forecast has been slightly increased to 5-6%. GDP growth in 2024-2026 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, boosted by increased fiscal stimulus. In 2025 and 2026, the oil sector will also support economic growth due to increased production.
