ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s transport sector accelerated in 2025, recording 20.4% growth in real terms, according to a recent report published by Halyk Finance on Jan. 20.
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According to the report, the surge outpaced the sector’s average growth of 8.2% seen over the previous three years, positioning the industry as a primary driver of the nation’s 6.5% GDP growth. However, the rapid rise has prompted analysts to scrutinize the underlying data.
“The dynamics of transport services should generally reflect growth in other sectors of the economy where goods need to be moved,” reads the report.
While transport services surged by over 20%, internal trade grew by only 8.9%, and manufacturing and mining grew by 6.4% and 9.4%, respectively. Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover saw a nominal decrease of 0.1% in the first 11 months of 2025.
Freight turnover leads the charge
The primary catalyst for the sector’s performance was freight turnover, which grew by 13.6% in 2025, up from 2.6% in 2024. Freight services now account for approximately 79% of the industry’s total revenue.
According to the report, growth was observed across all major segments, including rail, road, and pipeline transport, which together represent 99.6% of the country’s total freight turnover.
Rail transport, which accounts for 62% of Kazakhstan’s cargo turnover and remains the backbone of Kazakhstan’s logistics, recorded a 10.2% increase in freight turnover in 2025, up sharply from just 0.3% growth a year earlier. This was fueled by higher shipments of oil, construction materials, chemicals, and grain.
Pipeline transport, responsible for 30% of total cargo turnover, also saw a significant boost, rising to 16.5% from 3.7% in 2024. This was largely attributed to a 13.3% increase in oil and gas condensate production.
The standout figure was the 32.8% jump in road freight turnover in 2025, up from 19.7% in 2024. Analysts have raised questions regarding this figure, noting it does not align with the performance of related sectors.
Passenger transport and mobility shifts
In contrast to freight, passenger turnover slowed, growing by 7.4% in 2025 compared with 13.8% in 2024. Buses account for 98% of all passengers; however, it generates only 7% of the sector’s revenue. Air transport remains the primary revenue generator for passenger services, contributing 12.5% of total transport income while accounting for 34% of passenger turnover.
The most noticeable impact on the slowdown in passenger traffic dynamics was the motor transport segment, where growth slowed from 24.6% in 2024 to 12.7% in 2025, while the air segment also declined from 9.2% in 2024 to 6% in 2025.
Rail transport, which accounts for 18% of total passenger turnover, also affected overall dynamics, with passenger turnover declining by 2.5% year-on-year, compared to 0.5% growth in 2024. The decline may be linked to changing mobility preferences and the relative decline in rail travel’s attractiveness.
Outlook for 2026
Economists expect the growth of the volume of services in the transport sector to slow down and return to the average level of growth.
This anticipated slowdown is linked to a broader cooling of the national economy. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth is forecast to moderate from 6.5% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026, according to macroeconomic reports.
