ASTANA — Central Asian cities are exposed to recurrent flooding, earthquakes, mudflows and increasing temperature extremes that affect infrastructure and economic stability. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) study released in November 2025, integrating disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation into urban planning is becoming critical for long-term stability.
The UNDP publication reviews climate and disaster risks in Petropavl, Osh, Dushanbe, Ashgabat and Namangan, analyzing how local conditions shape vulnerability. Photo credit: UNDP
The publication, titled Urban Resilience in Central Asia: City Risk Profiles, examines five cities, including Petropavl in Kazakhstan, Osh in the Kyrgyz Republic, Dushanbe in Tajikistan, Ashgabat in Turkmenistan and Namangan in Uzbekistan, analyzing how geography, infrastructure condition and demographic trends interact with climate projections.
“These risk profiles reveal both the uniqueness of each city’s hazard landscape and the shared regional vulnerabilities that demand coordinated solutions. (…) Urban resilience is no longer a choice – it is the foundation on which sustainable development must stand,” wrote UNDP Istanbul Regional Hub Manager Steliana Nedera in the report’s foreword.
“It is essential that urban development planning processes integrate disaster and climate resilience, combining upstream interventions with city-level measures, including nature-based solutions and enhanced community engagement,” she added.
Petropavl: flood risks, worn systems
In the profile prepared by Kazakh experts Adiya Karsybek and Kuanysh Magzumov, Petropavl is presented as an example of how recurrent flooding can generate significant economic losses in northern Kazakhstan.
The city of approximately 222,000 residents lies along the Yesil River in relatively flat terrain. Seasonal flooding has been recorded there for decades, including major events in 1942, 1946, 2002, 2017 and 2024. The 2024 flood alone led to the evacuation of more than 5,900 residents and losses exceeding $174 million, affecting more than 2,100 houses and nearly 6,600 land plots. Nearly 18 kilometers of roads were damaged, and three settlements were temporarily isolated.
According to the study, worn dams, eroding riverbanks and insufficient stormwater drainage intensified the impact. Heating networks are reported to be up to 79% worn, electricity grids up to 97%, and water supply and sewer systems between 58% and 62% worn. Experts highlighted that flood events frequently disrupt water and electricity services.
The study showed that temperatures in the North Kazakhstan Region are rising faster than the global average, with potential increases of 3-5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios. Heavier but less evenly distributed precipitation may increase flash flood risks, while longer droughts could affect agricultural output.
By 2050, drought-related agricultural losses in the region could reach 778 billion tenge (US$1.57 billion). Without adaptation and infrastructure upgrades, annual damages could reduce regional economic output by approximately 1.3% by mid-century.
According to the report, adaptation priorities for Petropavl include restricting construction in floodplains, reinforcing riverbanks and integrating updated risk maps into land-use planning.
Osh: seismic and water pressures
Unlike Petropavl’s riverine exposure, southern cities face higher seismic and landslide risks.
Osh, located near the foothills of the Alay Range mountains, sits in a high-seismic zone rated 8-9 on the MSK-64 scale, a system used in the region to measure earthquake intensity. Since 1900, at least 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater have struck the city and surrounding areas.
Mudflows and flash floods occur two to three times annually. In July 2024, heavy rainfall triggered a mudflow that killed five people and damaged 182 residential buildings and multiple public facilities.
The population of Osh is reported at 478,300 as of June 2025. Water supply systems are more than 50% worn, and projected water deficits could reach 30% by 2030, including distribution losses. Temperatures are projected to rise steadily through the century, potentially reaching increases of up to 6.2 degrees Celsius by 2090 under high-emission scenarios.
Kyrgyz experts Jergalbek Ukashev and Meimanbek Chekirbaev emphasized the need for seismic assessments of buildings and stricter enforcement of construction standards.
Dushanbe: growing capital, higher risk
Dushanbe also faces comparable seismic exposure, compounded by high population density. More than 1.2 million residents live in the Tajik capital, with over 80% concentrated in four central districts where density exceeds 9,000 persons per square kilometer. Annual demographic growth of approximately 2.5% further increases exposure.
According to findings by Ikrom Soliev and Khursandmurod Hakimov, annual economic losses from natural hazards are estimated at 1-1.5% of gross regional product, with cumulative losses potentially rising to 2-3% in the second half of the century under high-emission scenarios.
Water supply losses reach up to 60%, and district heating losses approach 40%. Flash floods from the Varzob and Luchob rivers periodically disrupt transport and utilities. Average annual temperatures have increased by approximately 3.2 degrees Celsius over the past 50 years, with further increases in the number of extreme heat days projected.
Experts also noted risks posed by industrial facilities located in flood-prone areas, underscoring the need for improved environmental monitoring and protective zoning.
Ashgabat: seismic risks, water reliance
Ashgabat presents a combination of seismic and water-related risks. The city experienced one of the region’s most destructive earthquakes in 1948 and remains seismically active. At the same time, flash floods and mudflows affect the southern districts. The capital depends almost entirely on the Karakum Canal for water supply, increasing vulnerability to disruptions.
Experts Mahrijemal Hydyrgulyyeva and Nazar Durdyhanov highlighted the pressing need for continued seismic monitoring and improvements in water management planning.
Namangan: urban growth, landslide risk
Namangan, located in Uzbekistan’s Fergana Valley, faces risks from earthquakes, flash floods, and mudflows similar to those in Osh. Rapid urban expansion and informal settlements near the foothills increase the risk of landslide exposure. Declining water availability and rising drought frequency pose additional pressure on agriculture. Projected agricultural losses across several cities in the study range between 15-50% by mid-century under adverse climate scenarios.
Botiroli Imomov, Gulchiroy Ishmatova, and Feruza Nigmatova emphasized the importance of updated hazard mapping and stronger land-use controls in vulnerable districts.
Cross-border risk planning
While hazard profiles differ, the report pinpointed common priorities across the region: improved enforcement of construction standards, updated hazard mapping, stronger land-use planning and reinforcement of critical infrastructure.
According to the report, many flood and mudflow risks originate beyond city boundaries.
“These examples illustrate how local environmental conditions, planning choices, and the lack of risk reduction measures converge to heighten flood and mudflow risks across the region in a changing climate. Addressing these issues requires risk reduction planning that extends beyond municipal borders, linking cities with neighboring districts where risks originate. Investments by cities in risk reduction within upstream areas can often be more cost-effective than building gray infrastructure within city limits,” reads the report.
Experts also proposed preventative measures such as strengthening disaster risk financing through contingency funds, insurance instruments and green resilience bonds, as well as integrating disaster risk reduction into public and private investment planning.
