ASTANA — As we were walking towards the shooting area where The Astana Times YouTube channel’s cameras were ready to roll, Daniel F. Runde Senior, Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington, D.C., United States (US), reiterated to me that this is not a phenomenon of the last decade involving tariff wars and trade wars between the world’s largest economies. Runde just stepped out from the panel at the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025, dedicated to trade as a weapon. He noted that trade has long been used as a tool in dealing with other countries, often rivals.
Daniel F. Runde Senior, Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington, D.C., United States (US). Photo credit: The Astana Times
He mentioned one issue that remains sore in Kazakhstan–US relations: the Jackson–Vanik Amendment. It was passed by the U.S. Congress in 1974 as part of the Trade Act, long before Kazakhstan could have imagined being in the position it is in today. The amendment aimed to pressure the Soviet Union to allow greater freedom of emigration, particularly for Jews and other minorities who were being denied the right to leave the country. Runde noted that most people in Washington don’t know what Jackson–Vanick is. However, the Soviet Union ended 35 years ago. Jackson–Vanik was removed from Russia more than 10 years ago, but was kept on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
“Anachronistic and way past its time. We should fix this,” he said.
Outdated political relic still haunting Kazakhstan-US relations
According to him, the lack of organized pushback means resolving the issue will require significant political organization. He pointed out several times during our half-hour video interview that the countries affected by this amendment, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, should work together.
“There ought to be a coalition of countries that come together and the businesses that benefit from future trade, with these countries. I think lamentable that it continues. I’m embarrassed as an American that we continue to have this. We should not have this. I know this is a sore point in our relationship, and I think we can be honest with each other,” he shared.
Daniel F. Runde and Aida Haidar, The Astana Times reporter at the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025. Photo credit: The Astana Times
Runde explained that this issue is more related to the U.S. political process.
“It’s a function of the dysfunction in our political process, not a function of someone sitting in the White House saying we’ve got to keep this on them. There’s no central planning mind,” he explained, citing that the committees that deal with foreign policy or national security are different from the committee that handles Jackson–Vanik, which deals with trade and taxes. He added that the kinds of levers diplomats usually pull, or the relationships they have, don’t match up with the right people on Capitol Hill who actually influence this issue.
Why Trump’s second term could finally bring US President to Kazakhstan
Donald Trump and his disruptive style of politics, both domestically and globally, was also the focus of our conversation. Runde noted that Trump’s return to the White House presents a rare window of opportunity for Kazakhstan and Central Asia in general. Despite more than 30 years of diplomatic ties, no US president has ever visited Kazakhstan. So, could President Trump be the first? And how might US–Kazakhstan relations deepen during a second Trump term? Runde explored both the possibilities and the politics.
“If you asked me who would be the most likely President to visit in the last 30 years, and then in the next 30 years, it’s going to be Donald Trump in his second term. And the reason for that is—I think if Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were to put together a package, a real economic proposal with a big number attached to it—the way you just saw in the Middle East—he would come here,” he said.
According to him, with President Trump likely to de-emphasize the climate agenda, this would directly impact Kazakhstan’s oil production.
“I think President Trump would like to see Kazakhstan produce yet more oil because that will reduce the price of gas for the American worker and the American citizen at the pump. And reduced oil prices mean cheaper food,” he said.
Runde also pointed out that Trump’s political style avoids lectures on uncomfortable topics, and his human rights agenda is likely to focus on religious freedom, which Kazakhstan actively encourages on its soil.
“Kazakhstan is a world leader in religious freedom. So on a human rights agenda front and on an energy and climate front, President Trump is going to be a very friendly president and have a benign approach to Kazakhstan in those ways. I think the question for Kazakhstan is—let’s make a deal. What I mean by that is: if Kazakhstan wants more from the US, the onus is a little bit on Kazakhstan. You guys have to decide if you want more from us. I think you guys need to work together with Uzbekistan and put together an offer,” he explained.
Kazakhstan’s diplomatic balancing act: winning friends and building bridges
He reiterated Kazakhstan’s proven track record of steadfast dedication to cooperation with many global players.
“So I think it’s been clear since your independence that you’ve taken a multilateral approach and embraced interdependence. You’ve tried to have good relations with Russia. You’ve improved your relations with China. You’ve improved your relations with Uzbekistan by a lot. You’ve sought deeper and sustained ties with the United States and Europe,” he added.
Runde commended the progress made by Kazakhstan, which he has witnessed firsthand through his travels to the country over the last decade or more.
“Kazakhstan is a great development success story. In 1991, I think the GDP per capita of Kazakhstan was something like $700 per person. It’s now something like $15,000 per person. I’ve been to Astana several times since 2017 or 2016, and every time I come, I’m amazed by the progress here. This is a city that grew up basically out of nothing 25 years ago. So Kazakhstan has a lot of potential and works hard at maintaining relationships with everyone,” he said.
He also emphasized that democracy, although not perfect, remains the best option for countries. He believes the arc of progress bends toward democracy and commended the Kazakh government’s policy of seeking membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)— “the club of market democracies.”
“I want Kazakhstan to join, over the next 10 years, the club of market democracies. When I hear your president talk today about democracy. I believe him. I think your country is on a path of political reform. Your president is taking some risks. I think we should support him. We ought to find ways to be supportive of that. This is an important country,” he said.
Breaking the middle-income trap: Kazakhstan’s road to innovation
Runde also discussed the importance of moving forward and avoiding the “middle-income trap”, which Kazakhstan risks falling into. According to him, an economy that depends solely on commodities is vulnerable. But he acknowledged that Kazakhstan’s political establishment is aware of this and has taken steps to mitigate the risks, such as establishing a sovereign wealth fund and investing in educational programs abroad for young people.
“The challenge for Kazakhstan is to move up the value chain, away from commodities. You need to have a knowledge economy, a service economy, an innovation economy and more political freedom. I think that’s what your president was talking about,” he said.
He added that arguably Kazakhstan’s greatest resource is its people.
“It’s not your oil, it’s not your minerals, it’s not your location—which is both a blessing and a curse. Yes, it’s a blessing in many ways. You could turn that into a plus—the Middle Corridor,” he added.
Runde said that critical minerals, a hot topic these days, could be transported down the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Trade Route) instead of going through Iran. According to him, the US should become a better partner in making this route more preferable and effective than other existing ones.
For full conversation, please watch the full interview on The Astana Times YouTube channel
