ASTANA — Globally, education trends have been evolving rapidly. Rita Almeida, manager of the Education Global Practice for Europe and Central Asia at the World Bank, shared in an interview with The Astana Times YouTube channel how these global trends, often referred to as “megatrends,” translate into regional dynamics, particularly in Central Asia and Kazakhstan.
Rita Almeida, manager of the Education Global Practice for Europe and Central Asia at the World Bank. Photo credit: The Astana Times
According to her, these megatrends influence labor markets, economic development, and most crucially, the education system. Almeida emphasized that the starting point is demographic transition.
Three megatrends shaping the region
She explained that when comparing Europe and Central Asia, there is a stark contrast in demographic trends.
“Western Europe is becoming older, and with that comes a decrease in fertility rates. Education systems now face the need to adapt to these new demographics, creating opportunities to rethink school networks, considering both the overcrowded urban schools operating in two or three shifts, and the underutilized rural schools,” she said.
However, increasing longevity across the board also plays a role. This shift opens opportunities as older teachers retire, allowing countries to reimagine the profile of the modern educator. What should the new generation of teachers look like? What competencies should they bring? These transitions present both challenges and opportunities.
In Kazakhstan’s case, the country faces increasing numbers of youth entering both the education system and the labor market. This puts pressure on infrastructure, and education policy must respond accordingly.
From robots to resilience: the tech shift
Education and learning are among the strongest drivers of growth, Almeida noted in an interview with Aida Haidar. Photo credit: The Astana Times
The second megatrend Almeida addressed is technological transition. Automation has pushed humans out of routine jobs, leading to a sharp decline in demand for such skills. In their place, there is a growing need for higher-order cognitive skills and emotional intelligence in the labor market.
“Our capacity to think critically, our ability to learn how to learn, our social and emotional skills, such as communication, empathy, and resilience, are increasingly important. These shifts have direct implications for education systems,” she said.
Digitalization has also revolutionized school management worldwide. Teachers now engage with highly digital platforms, requiring a new set of competencies. This leads directly into the third megatrend.
Climate crisis in the classroom
Climate change and the green transition are having complex effects on education, including in Kazakhstan. Almeida recalled the devastating floods of the previous year in Kazakhstan, which strained not only government resources but also school infrastructure.
“This put pressure on the resilience of our schools – how we protect children, protect teachers, and ensure education can continue despite shocks,” she said.
But the green transition also brings fresh demand for skills in renewable energy, electric vehicles, logistics, recycling, and waste management.
“These are entirely new competencies. Education systems must evolve to prepare students for these emerging sectors,” Almeida stressed.
Breaking the middle-income trap
Almeida connected these megatrends to the broader challenge of the middle-income trap, as outlined in the World Development Report 2024. She emphasized the opportunities for Central Asia — and Kazakhstan in particular — to leverage these trends for more inclusive and sustainable growth.
“The report highlights two key transitions for countries that have moved from middle- to high-income status. The first involves importing knowledge, ideas, and technologies from abroad—what we call ‘infusion.’ The second is innovation—empowering local economies to create new research, products, and processes,” she said.
Almeida underscored that investment in human capital, particularly education, is essential to making these transitions.
“Education and learning are among the strongest drivers of growth,” she noted.
She cited South Korea, Poland, and Estonia as countries that successfully invested in quality education alongside broader reforms. Kazakhstan, she said, is at a similar stage as Türkiye, with a Purchasing Power Parity-adjusted income of around $10,000.
“This raises important questions for Kazakhstan: What does it take to diversify the economy and boost productivity? Education and human capital must be central to the answer,” she said.
According to the World Bank’s Human Capital Index, a child born in Kazakhstan today will reach only 63% of their potential productivity by age 18.
“This means we’re losing nearly 30% of potential productivity due to gaps in education and health access and quality,” Almeida explained.
Still, she remains optimistic, recognizing that Kazakhstan is already investing heavily in education: “The encouraging news is that we know what works. It’s just a matter of maintaining focus and commitment.”
AI and the future of learning: hype or hope?
No conversation about the future of education is complete without discussing artificial intelligence. Almeida explored how AI is transforming education systems in Europe and Central Asia, offering opportunities to improve learning outcomes, but also presenting risks that must be carefully managed.
“The good news is that we already have a set of AI interventions that have been evaluated. The best thing we can do now is keep investing in research and monitoring to understand what really works,” she said.
Almeida cautioned against blindly jumping on the AI bandwagon. She shared her own observation, highlighting that with all these big words like ed tech solutions and artificial intelligence, one gets caught up in the hype and feels pressured to adopt them.
According to her, it is important first to ask yourself a series of questions: Why do I need this? What is the outcome I want to impact? Do I want to improve service delivery in my education system? Do I want system management to improve? Do I want to enhance pedagogies in the classroom? Do I want to use artificial intelligence to improve learning outcomes, discipline, and the rigor of thinking? Why do you need it? Because technology on its own is meaningless.
“We want it for a purpose. So perhaps start with that. I think that is an important starting point. The other thing is, as we experiment with new approaches in the system, I think we need to continue monitoring, evaluating, and testing their impacts, whatever the intended outcome is. The evidence shows that technology can actually have very positive effects. I am thinking, for example, of a study that sent informational SMS messages to school directors, which accelerated the execution rate of school budgets. There’s also a lot of evidence that online tutoring or online classes can significantly improve student learning outcomes,” she said.
Almeida pointed out that while AI-powered tools such as SMS notifications for school directors, online tutoring, and personalized learning apps show promise, most of these interventions are small-scale and tailored to specific groups.
“The real challenge for policymakers is scalability. How do we take something that works for 100 schools and make it work for 10,000, without losing effectiveness or blowing up costs?” she said.
Almeida emphasized the importance of enabling conditions, such as internet access, teacher training, and IT support in schools. She mentioned that the “one laptop per child,” although good on paper, failed in practice in many countries because governments focused on hardware but neglected infrastructure and capacity-building.
Estonia’s example and Kazakhstan’s path forward
When asked if she could mention any examples of countries in Europe or Central Asia that have successfully harnessed the potential of AI in their school systems, she said Estonia is one of them.
“It has been extremely successful in deploying AI at scale and achieving a major transformation of the education system—not only in terms of managing the system but also in introducing very different technological platforms into it. But I also have to say that the transformation goes well beyond the education system. If you look at many other public services, they are heavily digitized. So, it has been a huge investment at the national level, but that’s probably one of the best examples,” she concluded.
Kazakhstan, like many middle-income countries, stands at a crossroads. The megatrends of demography, technology, climate, and AI are not future risks—they are current realities. As Rita Almeida pointed out, education systems must become more resilient, innovative, and equitable to keep up. The good news is that Kazakhstan has already laid the groundwork. The country shows high potential with stable student outcomes post-COVID-19. There has been an increase in science results (PISA 2022), high student resilience, and relatively small achievement gaps between urban and rural schools, as well as between socio-economic groups.
What comes next depends on how the country chooses to invest in its people, its most valuable resource for long-term growth.
