Regionalism Trends Reshape Future for Central Asian States, Says Expert

ASTANA – Why does regionalism matter in the region? How do countries implement multilateral dialogue? Which country is an informal authority in the region? These are the topics we discussed with Filippo Costa Buranelli, Associate Professor in International Relations at the University of St. Andrews, in a recent interview.

As an expert, Costa Buranelli published more than 50 works on Central Asia, global governance, theory of international relations, geopolitics, international history, and other topics. He has been visiting Central Asia since 2013 and has collaborated with local universities and institutions. 

Regional politics in Central Asia 

“My research on regionalism seeks to identify the norms, principles, and practices that have allowed the Central Asian states to coexist for more than 30 years,”  Costa Buranelli explained. “These elements collectively create an ‘order,’ which is different from ‘regionalism’ or ‘integration.’ The norms and principles that have helped to minimize interstate war and conflict include respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, the observance of basic rules of international law (such as anti-nuclearism demonstrated by the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone), continuous use of diplomacy even in times of severe crises, strong internal governance, and reliance on great powers and international institutions to address big issues, such as climate change, transnational terrorism, sustainable development.”

These principles are understood, shared, and protected by all states in the region.

Costa Buranelli prefers to speak of ‘order’, as opposed to ‘regionalism’ or ‘integration,’ because Central Asia lacks a formal regional organization, and sovereignty is not shared by regional states, which is the fundamental premise of integration as understood in a European context. 

“Yet, I have observed instances of cooperation, coordination, mutual support, mutual understanding, joint projects, common positions on several issues pertaining to world politics, and ongoing dialogue over very delicate matters, such as water politics. Addressing such issues is fundamental to deal with, despite the diversity that, alongside many similarities, characterizes the region,” he said.

According to  Costa Buranelli, regional politics of Central Asia is flexible, informal, pragmatic, process-oriented, and at times personalistic. 

“Interestingly, in my interviews with Foreign Ministry officials in Central Asia, no one used the expression ‘regionalism,’ but rather ‘regional cooperation’ or ‘coordination.’ For example, the consultative meetings of the presidents and pragmatic cooperation in areas such as infrastructure, education, economy, and environment are reminiscent of the 1990s. Back then, Central Asian states ambitiously set up numerous organizations to manage and develop the newly independent regional space after more than a century of subjugation,” he said. 

For  Costa Buranelli, it is important not only to work in the archives for a historical perspective on the present but also to speak to officials, former foreign ministers, administrations, ambassadors, heads of think tanks, intellectuals, and academics to understand their perceptions of regional politics. 

He is currently working on his book ‘Region-Making in Central Asia,’ which features more than 10 years of research, the study of 500 archival documents from the 1990s, and over 100 interviews. 

“Regional cooperation in Central Asia is premised on multilateral dialogue, such as the meetings of presidents, heads of security councils, foreign ministers, and is visible in some institutions, but is mostly delivered on a bilateral basis. Ultimately, my research finds that what we call ‘regionalism’ in Central Asia is a process with natural ebbs and flows. It is not a binary concept, but rather a complex set of actors, issues, dynamics, practices, norms, understandings, and relations that define Central Asia,” he said. 

Despite some challenges, there’s positive developments and growing efforts toward regional cooperation. 

Role of external actors in shaping regional dynamics 

Costa Buranelli noted that external actors, especially great powers, are a source of investment, collaboration, security, and legitimacy. 

“We should not underestimate how much interactions with the big players in the international system are used for domestic purposes, legitimizing governments and presidents. International actors like the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, the World Bank, and the United Nations all offer valuable contributions to the region, particularly in development, trade, and governance,” he said. 

External actors can act as catalysts for new dynamics in the region. While there have been disagreements in terms of how to approach the new Taliban rule in Afghanistan, the Central Asian republics have devised “a strategy to prevent the country from sinking into violence and poverty, providing economic, energy, and humanitarian assistance despite condemning abuses of women’s rights.”

Uzbek President Shavkhat Mirziyoyev has advocated for including Afghanistan in a wider regional dialogue, a position echoed by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during a meeting with Central Asian heads of security councils on May 16. 

The expert noted that order becomes paramount, focusing on the need for coexistence and coordination, even if there is a lesser common identity.

“There is persistent talk about a ‘new great game’ in Central Asia, focused on external actors competing in the region,” Costa Buranelli explained. “I find this perspective shortsighted, as there is also a lot of cooperation. Moreover, Central Asia is not a playfield or a chessboard, but rather a region where states, societies, and peoples have their own agendas, aspirations, needs, and goals, making them active players in shaping regional dynamics.” 

More external players are adopting the C5+ format to engage with regional states. In May, the third ministerial meeting between Italy and Central Asia was held in Rome. 

“This format is useful for the regional states to ‘sync the watches’ and coordinate some common positions in specific areas of interactions, while emphasizing their national interest and sovereign prerogatives. Being a region does not necessarily mean agreeing on everything but having a systemic awareness of what can stabilize or destabilize the common ecosystem shared by states and peoples in Central Asia. The fact that the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met informally before the meeting with their Italian counterpart shows that coordination and dialogue are highly valued in foreign policy,” said Costa Buranelli, who participated at the C5+1 meeting in Rome as an official delegate. 

These meetings are also important for the external partners. For Italy, meeting with the regional states helps to understand what priorities to stress, what synergies to create, what issues to discuss, and what values to pursue, primarily respect, reciprocity, transparency, and dialogue. 

“Italy understands that a political approach to Central Asia is best left to the EU and the great powers, while economy, soft skills, connectivity, education, and energy diplomacy are the paramount prisms through which to build a long-lasting, fruitful, and equal relationship with the Central Asian states, both individuality and in their regional context,” he added. 

Kazakhstan’s role in the region 

According to  Costa Buranelli, Kazakhstan holds a position of informal authority and moral suasion that provides significant political and diplomatic capital. 

“The country has excellent relations with all its Central Asian neighbors, has strategic and, in some cases, allied relations with them, and has proven to be a reliable partner, both economically and politically. Recent domestic reforms, such as the new legislation on violence against women, should be seen as a welcome step towards a more just and open society, which can be emulated in neighboring countries,” he said.

However, the expert noted that Kazakhstan still faces challenges in economic, societal, and infrastructural sectors, which require ongoing attention and effort.

“For instance, the government’s handling of recent floods indicates that there is still work to be done, along with the liberalization of some political activities and groups. Kazakhstan is in a favorable position to act as a diplomatic and political gravitational pull for the region, but it should always keep in mind the sovereign equality, parity of status, respect, multilateralism, mutual support, and openness that its Central Asian neighbors expect,” he said. 

Costa Buranelli highlighted the positive developments in Kazakhstan’s relations with its neighbors, such as its tandem with Uzbekistan, the renewed allied relations with the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, and a strengthened strategic partnership with Turkmenistan. These indicate that Kazakhstan is pursuing its national interest while also fostering regional cooperation. 

“In his visit to Singapore, Tokayev mentioned something important – Central Asian subjektivnost, or subjectivity. The fact that he sees the region as being a subject, with agency and capacity to have an impact on world politics, is the first step towards becoming a middle power that cares for its neighborhood based on equality and inclusivity, without behaving egotistically. Increased synergy and mutual support in international forums like the UN is a good indication that the region can act together despite differences in opportunities. Being a middle power may not be the same as being a great power, but it still entails having power. How that power is used, and how the accompanying responsibilities are fulfilled, matters a lot,” he said.

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