EBRD Forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP to Grow 4.5% in 2024 Despite Severe Floods

ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s GDP is projected to increase by 4.5% in 2024 despite severe floods that hit the country this spring, according to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on May 15. 

“While elevated government spending is expected to soften their impact on aggregate demand, the floods’ full impact is yet to be assessed,” the report reads.

In 2023, Kazakhstan’s economy expanded primarily due to the strength of consumer demand and public spending, partially funded by elevated transfers from the National Fund. Retail and wholesale trade stood as the main growth drivers, supported by rising wages and consumer lending.

Although oil export revenues declined on lower prices, exports to the Eurasian Economic Union countries boosted non-oil activities, leading to growth in output and fixed capital investment.

This trend continued in the first quarter of 2024, with GDP growth driven by expansion in non-oil sectors such as construction, communication, transport, and warehousing.

In 2025, Kazakhstan’s economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5.5%, fueled by higher oil production, a rebound in agriculture, and potential privatizations.

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