Kazakhstan’s National Bank Lowers Base Rate to 14.75%

ASTANA – The National Bank announced plans to reduce the base rate by 50 basis points to 14.75% per annum, with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, the bank’s press service reported on Feb. 23.

Photo credit: Turar Kazangapov/TENGRINEWS.

The annual inflation slowed to 9.5% in January, and the bank forecasted inflation to maintain in the range of 7.5-9.5% this year, 5.5-7.5% in 2025, and 5-6% in 2026.

“The slowdown in overall price growth was caused by the ongoing monetary policy, a decrease in global inflationary pressure and production costs, the gradual restoration of supply chains, government measures, and the influence of the high base effect of last year,” reads the statement.

The baseline scenario assumes stabilization of Brent oil prices until the end of 2025 at $80 per barrel amid an extension of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) production cuts, moderate production growth from the United States. 

Based on current parameters, the forecast for Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2024 has been increased to 3.5-4.5% due to domestic demand amid an improving situation with business activity.

A 5.5-6.5% economic growth in 2025 will be ensured by increased oil output as a result of expanded production at Tengizchevroil.

In 2026, with a scenario reduction in oil prices and current forecast assumptions, the GDP growth rate will stand at 3.5-4.5%.

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