Standard & Poor’s Reaffirms Kazakhstan’s Sovereign Credit Rating, Outlook Stable

ASTANA – The international rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) confirmed Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit rating at BBB-/A-3 and maintained a stable outlook on Sept. 4.

Standard & Poor’s office in New York. Photo credit: Kazakh Ministry of National Economy.

Kazakhstan’s economic growth momentum will moderate as the government tightens fiscal policy in line with its fiscal rules. At the same time, government net debt is low, and the country’s net external asset position provides a cushion against external shocks, according to the report.

The S&P expects real gross domestic product (GDP) will peak near 5% this year and average 3% over 2024-2026.

According to analysts, the ratings of Kazakhstan are supported by the country’s strong fiscal and external balance sheets.

“We expect the economy will expand by nearly 5% in 2023, supported by growth in the construction, trade, information and communications, transport, and mining sectors. Over the next three years, we forecast that growth will average around 3% annually. A key factor will be the expansion of the Tengiz oil field, which should significantly increase oil production,” reads the report.

On Aug. 25, the country’s National Bank decided to reduce the base rate to 16.5% per annum from 16.75%. It improved its economic growth forecast for Kazakhstan, raising it to 4-5% in 2024-2025 due to the expansion of business activity driven by sustained domestic demand, increased budget expenditures, and the recovery of the oil sector.

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