ASTANA – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Kazakhstan’s economic growth to accelerate in 2023 and 2024, driven by recovering industry, services, and domestic demand, according to the ADB report released on April 4.
ADB economic publication projects Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be 3.7 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent in 2024, up from 3.2 percent last year as oil production grows at major oil fields.
“Projected price rises for the main export commodities are expected to stimulate investment and support business sentiment. Spillovers from sanctions on Russia pose the greatest downside risks to the outlook,” said the report.
ADB experts forecast growth in services from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.9 percent in 2024, supported by transport, trade, hospitality, and greater trade facilitation between Europe and Asia. The industry is projected to expand by 4.7 percent in 2023, driven by robust external demand for commodities, before slowing to 4.3 percent in 2024.
Inflation is projected to gradually decline to 11.8 percent in 2023 from 15 percent in 2022 and drop to 6.4 percent in 2024, reflecting tight monetary policy and presuming a stable currency.
The government’s export restrictions on foods and gasoline price controls are expected to maintain price stability and curb inflation. On the demand side, consumption growth is projected to recover to 1.6 percent in 2023 and 2.2 percent in 2024 as reduced inflation boosts real incomes and state allocations of social support rise.
Kazakhstan was the first Central Asian country to join ADB in 1994. Since then, ADB has approved more than $6 billion in sovereign and private sector loans and technical assistance grants supporting transport, agriculture, water, education, health, finance, and public sector management.