NUR-SULTAN – The Kazakh Ministry of National Economy reduced its real GDP growth forecast from the previous 3.9 percent figure to 2.1 percent, Minister of National Economy Alibek Kuantyrov said during a government meeting on Tuesday.
He said the forecast was refined taking into account the foreign economic situation and trends in the oil market.
“Since the beginning of the year, there has been a positive dynamics of economic growth in the country. The GDP growth rate in January and February was 3.5 percent. The average price of Brent oil since the beginning of the year was $98 per barrel. When specifying the macro indicators, the average annual oil price was determined at the level of $90 per barrel,” said Kuantyrov.
Nominal GDP is estimated at 91.5 trillion tenge (US$194.6 billion), 3.5 trillion tenge (US$7.4 billion) higher than the approved forecast.
According to the forecast of the National Bank, exports will increase to $72.2 billion, while imports will amount to $40.2 billion. The country’s key financial regulator projects inflation to reach between eight and ten percent.
The adjusted macroeconomic forecast also revised the budget revenues for 2022 to 10.2 trillion tenge (US$21.7 billion), which is 955 billion tenge (US$2 billion) more than the approved plan.
“To implement the tasks set by the President and to ensure a balanced national budget, we proposed to adjust the size of a guaranteed transfer from the National Fund approved for 2022, increasing it to four trillion tenge (US$8.5 billion). Foreign exchange assets are estimated at $55.9 billion,” said Kuantyrov.
The budget expenditures were also increased by 2.7 trillion tenge (US$5.7 billion) to 18.7 trillion tenge (US$39.8 billion). 1.8 trillion tenge (US$3.8 billion) of the additional expenditures will be directed to implement President Kssym-Jomart Tokayev’s initiatives.
On April 4, the country’s Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms announced it will present the package of economic reforms as part of a new economic policy in July prioritizing sustainable institutional reforms, fair competition and economic freedom, macroeconomic stability, economic diversification, human capital development, and public administration reforms.