NUR-SULTAN – The Kazakh Ministry of the National Economy has projected a 2.8 percent growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, and 4.6 percent in 2025. This was announced by the National Economy Minister Ruslan Dalenov during an Aug. 25 government meeting. The ministry relied on a baseline scenario to calculate Kazakhstan’s economic development for 2021-2025.
The agency estimated that nominal GDP would total 76.7 trillion tenge (US$182.23 billion) in 2021, and 104.8 trillion tenge (US$248.99 billion) by 2025. The ministry expects oil production to reach 86 million tons in 2021, and 100.7 million tons by 2025.
In addition to this, the ministry forecasted positive growth in all the basic industry sectors. The manufacturing industry should grow at a faster pace (6.7 percent on average per year) than the mining industry (2.9 percent). Average annual growth rates will be 6.2 percent in agriculture and 5.5 percent in trade. The export of goods will reach $41.4 billion in 2021, and $51.5 billion in 2025. Imports will increase to $36.3 billion in 2021, and reach $37.8 billion in 2025,” Dalenov said.
The ministry projected that national budget revenues (excluding transfers) would reach 6.93 billion tenge ($16.46 million) in 2021, 8.57 billion tenge (US$20.36 million) in 2022, and 9.22 billion tenge (US$21.91 million) in 2023. For the guaranteed transfers, the ministry proposed the government to allocate 2.7 billion tenge (US$6.41 million) in 2021, 2.4 billion tenge (US$5.7 million) in 2022, and 2.2 billion tenge (US$5.2 million) in 2023.
“The government plans to use the guaranteed transfer to finance social obligations . Accordingly, the plan was proposed so as to attract a 1 trillion tenge (US$2.38 billion) targeted transfer from the National Fund in 2021 to increase funding for further development programs,” the minister said.
The Kazakh National Bank (NBK) revised the inflation forecast for 2020 from 9-11 percent to 8-8.5 percent, said NBK Chairperson Yerbolat Dossayev. This is due to “weak domestic demand, which will have a disinflationary effect.”
The NBK also expects the exchange rate pass-through to impact inflation taking into account the expected balance of payments deficit, as well as the increased fiscal impulse. The financial regulator expects the target corridor to maintain 4-6 percent in 2021-2022, 4-5 percent in 2023-2024, and 3-4 percent in 2025.
In 2021, the NBK expects imports to recover and grow by 8.1 percent due to deferred demand and the accelerated implementation of investment projects after their freeze in 2020.
The Moody’s and Fitch Ratings rating agencies have affirmed Kazakhstan’s credit rating to be firmly within the level of investment reliability.
“According to the Fitch Ratings, Kazakhstan’s rating reflects fiscal stability in the economy, effective measures to support the economy, and a successful implementation of monetary policy,” Dalenov stressed.