ASTANA – The world can no longer prevent warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but deep emissions cuts could still limit the overshoot and bring temperatures back by 2100, according to the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026 released Oct. 21.
Photo credit: Shutterstock
The global benchmark
UNEP says the chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius with “no or limited” overshoot, meaning less than 0.1 degrees Celsius, has been lost. It now measures progress against a “lowest possible” overshoot scenario that assumes stringent action from 2025.
Under it, peak warming stays at 1.7-1.8 degrees Celsius with a 66% chance, and temperatures return to or below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 with around a 50% chance.
That path requires global emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels, an average of 5.7% a year. It also depends on removing roughly 320 gigatons of CO2 from the atmosphere this century, which UNEP says is uncertain to achieve.
New national pledges would cut emissions only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035.
“Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message on the report.
“The new Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme shows us what it will take: cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, compared with 2025 levels,” he said.
If current policies remain unchanged, global temperatures could rise by 2.8 degrees Celsius this century and continue climbing, the report warned.
Even if countries fully implement their national climate commitments, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), under the Paris Agreement and sustain similar efforts, warming is projected to reach 2.6 degrees Celsius.
Both estimates are higher than last year’s projections, largely because of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and updated calculations of historical emissions. The report found that new climate commitments submitted since its previous assessment have done little to improve the outlook.
“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
“So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This is possible,” she added.
Where Kazakhstan stands
The report does not assess Kazakhstan or Central Asia individually, and Kazakhstan is not a G20 member, so it does not appear in the report’s country comparisons. But the benchmarks give a yardstick for the country’s own commitments.
Kazakhstan’s updated climate pledge, NDC 3.0, targets a 17% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared with 1990 levels. A conditional target of up to 25% depends on international support. In 2023, Kazakhstan became the first Central Asian country to adopt a strategy for carbon neutrality by 2060.
A power system built on coal
The energy sector is where the challenge lies. Coal accounts for 62% of Kazakhstan’s electricity generation and 40% of its total greenhouse gas emissions, while renewable energy facilities account for 7% of the country’s total electricity production.
Official targets point to gradual change. The government aims for renewables to supply 15% of electricity by 2030 and 50% by 2050.
UNEP’s findings bear directly on these choices. It says renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated in 2015 and solar seven times faster, but total supply from coal, oil and gas keeps rising. It stresses that scaling up clean technology alone is not enough without moving away from fossil fuels.
Finance and methane
Guterres urged governments to invest in grids and storage, improve efficiency, cut methane and adopt credible roadmaps away from fossil fuels. He also called on developed countries to lower the cost of capital, expand concessional lending and ease debt burdens for developing economies.
These efforts are underway in Kazakhstan. The country is developing QaJET, a platform to coordinate climate finance and identify priority projects, with the energy sector as its main focus, and is working with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development on methane reduction and its emissions trading system. NDC 3.0 also includes a target to cut fugitive methane emissions in the oil and gas sector by 42% by 2035.
UNEP adds that developing and emerging economies are underrepresented in studies of what climate policies achieve. It recommends building evaluation into new policies from the outset. The report found that electricity-sector policies cut emissions by an average of 9% relative to a no-policy baseline.
Looking ahead
Andersen urged countries to raise ambition at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in November in Antalya.
“Nations must understand that the point of return begins now. Not later – now,” she said.
The report also urged countries to accelerate progress on commitments made during the first Global Stocktake, a review of collective efforts to meet the Paris Agreement goals conducted from 2021 to 2023.
These commitments include tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, cutting emissions other than carbon dioxide and reversing deforestation. Progress on most of these targets remains insufficient, according to the report.
The second Global Stocktake, set to begin at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, next month, offers an opportunity to strengthen these commitments by setting clearer, measurable targets for 2035 and 2040.
