ASTANA — The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to keep the base rate unchanged at 16.5% per annum with a corridor of +/-1 percentage point. The decision reflects updated forecasts of macroeconomic indicators and an assessment of inflation risks.
Photo credit: NBK
Inflation trends
Annual inflation in July stood at 11.8%, with food and non-food prices continuing to rise, while the growth of service prices slowed for the first time this year. Monthly inflation eased to 0.7%, though remaining above the long-term average. Core and seasonally adjusted inflation also slowed but stayed elevated, indicating persistent price pressures. Inflation expectations increased to 14.2%.
External factors continue to add pressure, including rising global food prices, high inflation in Russia, and slower-than-expected monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
Forecasts
The bank now expects inflation at 11–12.5% this year, 9.5–11.5% in 2026, and 5.5–7.5% in 2027. GDP growth is forecast at 5.5–6.5% this year, supported by strong investment and consumer demand, with 2026 growth projected at 4–5%.
Policy outlook
From September, new minimum reserve requirements will be introduced to strengthen monetary policy transmission. Further measures to cool retail lending and contain inflationary pressure are planned. The bank noted that if inflation does not slow significantly in the coming months, tightening of monetary conditions may be required.
The next decision on the base rate will be announced on Oct. 10.
