ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to quicken by 5.5% this year, up from 4.8% in 2024, according to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) Macroeconomic Outlook, released on June 24.
Photo credit: gov.kz
The acceleration will be driven by large-scale support for investment projects equivalent to 6% of GDP, which will counter offset external pressures. Growth drivers include fiscal stimulus, increased oil production, and initiatives focused on regional development and infrastructure.
Inflation is forecast to reach 11.9% in 2025, driven by strong consumer demand and increased utility tariffs.
The national currency is expected to remain stable, averaging 513 tenge per US dollar and ending the year at 515, backed by a high key rate and a projected surge in oil exports following the expansion of the Tengiz oilfield in the latter half of the year.
Global growth is expected to slow to 3% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2023-2024 due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy and structural challenges.
Despite this external backdrop, economic activity in the EDB region remains strong. Domestic factors, including investment in infrastructure and industry, as well as robust consumer demand driven by rising household incomes, are expected to sustain regional growth at 2.7%, with inflation declining to 7.7%.
Notably, this release marks the first time the EDB has included macroeconomic projections for Uzbekistan, which recently joined as its seventh member.
