ASTANA — Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow at 4.9% in 2025, followed by a slight moderation to 4.1% in 2026, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.
Photo credit: The Astana Times.
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025, ADB’s flagship economic publication, projects an increase in Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2025 due to an expected rise in oil production from the launch of the Future Growth Expansion project at Tengiz.
Tapering in growth in 2026 is projected on the back of fiscal consolidation as anticipated increase in taxes come into effect and fiscal spending is moderated. Downside risks to the outlook include negative spillovers from global issues, as well as potential disruptions to oil export routes, ADB reported on April 9.
“Kazakhstan’s economy has been growing steadily. To ensure this growth is sustained, it is critical to strengthen public financial management and improve fiscal governance to reduce reliance on the National Fund. These measures, alongside structural reforms for private sector development, will bolster the economy’s ability to withstand external shocks,” said ADB Country Director for Kazakhstan Utsav Kumar.
Inflation is projected to slow gradually to 8.2% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, as tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate help to contain price increases. The fiscal deficit is projected to widen marginally to 2.8% of GDP in 2025 and shrink to 1.7% in 2026, assuming the adoption of a government-proposed increase of the value-added tax rate and fewer exemptions. The current account deficit is expected to narrow, with higher oil output boosting merchandise exports.
ADO April 2025 highlights the need for a well-designed disaster risk finance strategy to strengthen Kazakhstan’s institutional preparedness for disaster response. A risk-layered strategy would enhance the country’s financial readiness and provide the government with quick access to necessary resources to ensure timely relief and early recovery.
The growth forecasts were finalized before the April 2 announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. administration, so the baseline projections only reflect tariffs that were in place previously.
However, ADO April 2025 does feature an analysis of how higher tariffs may affect growth in Asia and the Pacific.
Kazakhstan joined ADB in 1994, and the bank has committed loans, grants, and technical assistance amounting to over $7.5 billion to the country in public sector management, finance, energy, transport, and other sectors.
