ASTANA — The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) has raised the base rate from 15.25% to 16.5%, an unprecedented 1.25 percentage point increase amid growing economic uncertainty.
Rassul Rysmambetov. Photo credit: Ruslan Pryanikov/kapital.kz
Independent financial analyst Rassul Rysmambetov described the move as preemptive, highlighting concerns over rising tariffs, a planned VAT hike, and economic deregulation, which could accelerate inflation, Kazinform reported on March 7.
Rysmambetov attributed the decision to three key factors. First, shifts in the United States (U.S.) policies under Donald Trump’s administration, including potential shifts in U.S. energy policy, could impact Kazakhstan’s budget and inflation outlook.
Secondly, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree on economic liberalization last May, reflecting the general course of economic policy regarding deregulation of prices and tariffs.
Thirdly, the government’s proposal to increase VAT has fueled inflation expectations.
“If there had not been such an active attack on oil and inflation expectations related to VAT, the situation could have been much more stable,” Rysmambetov stated.
No one could have foreseen what is happening in the world today, Rysmambetov notes.
“The tariff war between the US, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and China is a global change that we feel as part of the global economy. We have witnessed the beginning of a global tariff war. As an oil-producing state, we will definitely feel all its consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to review some plans,” he suggested.
