ASTANA – Kazakhstan is predicted to experience 3.6% growth of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, slightly lower than the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) previous forecast of 3.8% in April 2024, according to the September edition of ADB’s flagship publication, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO).
Photo credit: Asian Development Bank
In 2025, Kazakhstan’s economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5.1%.
The ADB has marginally revised downwards its economic growth outlook for Kazakhstan in 2024, following weaker service expansion in the first half of the year coupled with lower oil outputs, massive floods, and a slowdown in investment.
In the first half of 2024, tax revenue collection declined as receipts from oil duty and value-added tax were lower than in 2023. The decline in tax collection was offset by higher transfers from the sovereign wealth fund, the National Fund of Kazakhstan, with the government utilizing three-quarters of planned annual transfers during this time.
This partially led to the national currency appreciating as Kazakhstan’s Central Bank converted the National Fund’s foreign currency receipts to tenge to meet the government transfer requests.
“While the economic growth prospects for Kazakhstan look positive in the medium term, its fiscal challenges need to be addressed to ensure sustainable and inclusive economic growth,” said ADB Country Director for Kazakhstan Utsav Kumar.
Average inflation slowed to 8.9% in the first seven months of 2024, down from 17.2% last year. Inflation is projected to slow to 6.1% in 2025, reflecting tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate enabled by substantial foreign reserves and commodity export earnings.
As of June 2024, the combined reserves in the National Fund and the central bank surpassed $100 billion.
Kazakhstan joined the ADB in 1994, and since then, the ADB has invested about $7 billion in loans to the government and private sector, grants, and technical assistance.
