Democracy, long cherished as the ideal form of governance, is facing a crisis of confidence worldwide. A surge in populist rhetoric, intensifying political polarization, and a flood of digital disinformation are destabilizing democratic norms and institutions across continents.
Miras Zhiyenbayev
Paradoxically, these challenges afflict not only fragile new democracies but also traditional strongholds of democracy. Even mature democracies are showing signs of strain as their institutions struggle to adapt to the hyper-connected digital society. Social media, once hailed as a democratizing force, has instead fueled echo chambers that deepen confirmation bias and societal divides. Algorithm-driven platforms prioritize outrage and in-group validation over dialogue, reinforcing biases and fragmenting public discourse. As citizens increasingly consume only ideas that confirm their views, the common ground needed for consensus becomes elusive.
These dysfunctions have opened the door for the rise of populism and illiberal movements. Populist leaders worldwide exploit grievances and offer simple fixes, often scapegoating minorities or “outsiders.” In every region, democracy is coming under attack by figures who reject pluralism and seek unchecked power. Bypassing institutional checks by appealing directly to “the people,” they stoke an us-versus-them mentality that undermines inclusive governance. The result in many cases is democratic erosion – liberties curtailed and institutions subverted under the guise of majority will. This trend underscores that a one-size-fits-all, instantaneous model of democracy is ill-suited to today’s complex realities.
History shows that attempting to install full democracy overnight, without regard for local context or the modern information environment, can backfire. Many emerging democracies have faltered in the social media age, as polarized narratives and rampant misinformation destabilized their nascent institutions. Well-intentioned reforms can thus lead to instability if a society is unprepared for the stresses of unfettered political competition – a nation can quickly descend into factionalism when democratic norms are transplanted without groundwork.
The global pattern of democratic backsliding suggests there is no universal formula for success. Imposing a standard template “overnight” may overlook deep-seated historical and social factors. Countries that embraced rapid democratization often saw initial openings give way to chaos or authoritarian revival. Institutions imported wholesale, without gradual adaptation, proved fragile under pressure. Meanwhile, authoritarian actors exploit such turmoil, using digital tools of censorship and propaganda to erode democratic norms. All this indicates that democracy cannot be a plug-and-play system. It must be cultivated step by step, with each stage building on the last.
In the face of these global challenges, Kazakhstan is charting a different course – one of staged democratization. Rather than leaping abruptly into a multiparty free-for-all, Kazakhstan’s leadership has been implementing reforms in phases, learning and adjusting at each step. This approach recognizes that constructing durable democratic institutions is a long-term project, especially in a country emerging from a legacy of centralized power.
The first step was a peaceful, constitutional transfer of power in 2019 – the country’s first since regaining independence – which avoided a vacuum and created space for orderly change. As president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev framed that transition as the opening move in a phased reform agenda: resetting the rules of presidential tenure, strengthening parliamentary authority and oversight, and introducing what he called “completely new standards” for the political system – thereby laying the groundwork for the next chapter of reform.
In 2022, a package of constitutional amendments extended the presidential term to seven years but limited it to a single term – preventing any repeat of lifelong rule. These changes curbed the presidency’s dominance and strengthened the role of Parliament and local government.
Now the country is preparing for the next phase: an ambitious parliamentary reform. In a September 2025 address, President Tokayev proposed transitioning from a bicameral legislature to a unicameral one by abolishing the Senate, the upper chamber. He calls this the “logical continuation” of Kazakhstan’s political modernization – following earlier limits on presidential authority – and part of a vision for “a strong President, an influential Parliament, and an accountable Government” approved by citizens in the 2022 referendum.
Equally important is the way this reform is being pursued: with deliberation and public input. Tokayev insists the change must have the full consent of the people. Instead of ramming through a decree, he has opened up an extensive public debate on the proposal. The plan is to hold a national referendum in 2027 on whether to eliminate the Senate – but only after at least a year of discussions involving civil society, experts, and lawmakers.
By airing the idea well in advance, the government encourages dialogue rather than imposing a fait accompli. “Such a large-scale reform cannot be kept secret from society. On fateful matters, we must conduct an open dialogue with the people,” Tokayev said, underscoring his commitment to transparency.
This gradualist ethos is intentional. The goal of the parliamentary reform is not to upend the system for its own sake, but to further strengthen the institutional foundations of the political system. Once again demonstrating Kazakhstan’s “phased and inclusive” style of political modernization.
Another instrument of modernization is Kazakhstan’s digital projects, which are becoming instruments of middle-power resilience in a fragmenting world. The flagship is Alatau City outside Almaty, envisioned as a fully digital urban ecosystem that concentrates research, advanced manufacturing and venture activity while piloting next-generation payment and “smart city” services. Framed alongside plans to establish a dedicated Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development, Alatau signals a deliberate fusion of place-based innovation and state capacity to scale new technologies rather than sprinkling isolated pilots.
A second backbone is the sovereign computer: the launch of Central Asia’s most powerful national supercomputer in July 2025 gives Kazakhstan domestic horsepower for training AI models and running complex simulations in logistics, climate and industry—capabilities that reduce dependence on foreign infrastructure and speed applied research.
Openness to innovation is how these assets translate into leverage and better governance. The long arc of Digital Kazakhstan is now being refreshed with concrete state-capacity moves: a unified national digital platform for water management to integrate data on surface and groundwater, support a national water balance and guide investment; and a proposal to assemble up to $1 billion in high-tech financing while creating a State Digital Asset Fund to steward strategic digital reserves and crowd in private capital.
This mix – problem-driven platforms in essential services and purposeful capital formation for advanced tech – keeps the focus on service delivery and economic diversification rather than rhetoric. For a middle power navigating great-power rivalry and technological bifurcation, that pragmatism is the difference between talking about innovation and using it to secure long-run autonomy.
Kazakhstan’s experience shows that democratic change can come by evolution rather than revolution. By pacing its reforms, the country aims to avoid the turmoil that often accompanies sudden political shifts. Each phase – leadership renewal, constitutional adjustment, and now institutional overhaul with digital focus – has been carried out with an emphasis on stability and consensus.
To be sure, Kazakhstan’s democratization remains a work in progress; meaningful pluralism and competition are still limited, and observers will watch to see whether these initiatives lead to genuine power-sharing or just incremental tweaks. Yet the trajectory is noteworthy. The leadership has acknowledged that the old centralized model must give way to a more open and accountable system, and it is attempting to manage that transition cautiously on its own terms.
In an era of democratic uncertainty, this gradual approach offers a hopeful alternative. It suggests that democratic norms can take root through steady progress and local buy-in rather than sudden imposition. President Tokayev’s refrain that only “joint efforts” can build a just and strong state is a reminder that successful democratization – especially in the digital age – requires patience, inclusion, and transparency. It stands as a counterpoint to democratic challenges, illustrating that a staged, context-sensitive path may succeed where one-size-fits-all prescriptions have faltered.
The author is Miras Zhiyenbayev, the advisor to the Chairman of the Board for International Affairs and Initiatives at Maqsut Narikbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan. He has recently authored the book “Widening the Scope: How Middle Powers are Changing Liberal Institutionalism” (KazISS, 2023).
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times.
