ASTANA — President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s announced plans for a sweeping infrastructure overhaul and long-term energy security have drawn reactions from Kazakh analysts, who see opportunities for economic growth alongside questions about how the government will turn ambitious proposals into lasting results.
Photo credit: Akorda.
In his Oct. 28 state-of-the-nation address, Tokayev outlined plans to allocate approximately 6.5 trillion tenge ($14.2 billion) from the National Fund through 2029 to modernize infrastructure, including new hospitals, schools, transportation networks and public utilities. He also proposed designating 2027 as a year of nationwide construction.
“Our country is entering a new historical cycle. At this turning point, we must critically reassess all national plans and strategies,” said Tokayev in his nearly one and half hour long address.
The address also called for considering a strategic uranium reserve to secure supplies for the country’s planned nuclear power plants for the next century.
Ambitious construction drive
Financial analyst Andrei Chebotarev framed the president’s emphasis on construction as part of a broader effort to reshape the country’s economy and society.
Writing on his FINANCEkaz Telegram channel, Chebotarev said the address appeared to frame construction as more than the development of roads, hospitals and logistics hubs.
“This isn’t just about building infrastructure, roads, and logistics hubs, both ground-based and air-based,” Chebotarev writes.
According to him, the concept also extended to strengthening economic opportunities, public institutions and civic responsibility.
He noted that construction could create employment and open opportunities that had previously been unavailable, particularly as Kazakhstan seeks to develop its economy amid rapid technological change.
“We have rolled up our sleeves and are building not a new Kazakhstan, not an old one, but our own Kazakhstan,” he added.
Olga Kaldybayeva, chief expert at the Public Opinion Monitoring Department of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, emphasized that expanding infrastructure alone would not guarantee better living conditions.
In an analysis published following the address, she noted that the effectiveness of urban development would depend on coordinated planning, efficient management of resources and investment in human capital.
According to figures from the Bureau of National Statistics cited by Kaldybayeva, Kazakhstan’s urban population reached approximately 13.2 million, or 64.2% of the total population, as of Sept. 1.
Almaty, Astana and Shymkent together accounted for approximately 38.7% of national GDP in 2025, she added.
“A city’s development is directly linked to the growth of human capital. Access to quality education, healthcare, modern jobs, and public spaces influences residents’ opportunities for professional development and self-fulfillment,” she explained.
“There is a reciprocal relationship here: a well-developed urban environment helps unlock human potential, while skilled and proactive residents become the most important resource for the city’s own economic and technological development. Therefore, investments in urban infrastructure should also be viewed as investments in human capital,” she said.
Kaldybayeva also highlighted Tokayev’s instructions to develop medium- and long-term plans for major cities and introduce digital twins of urban infrastructure, virtual models that can help authorities assess the condition of utility networks, anticipate demand and improve planning decisions.
She also stressed that the benefits of urban development should extend to surrounding regions and rural communities, rather than remain concentrated in Kazakhstan’s largest cities.
Questions of long-term planning
While the infrastructure agenda drew an optimistic interpretation from Chebotarev, energy analyst Askar Ismailov raised questions about the implementation of another proposal: the creation of a strategic uranium reserve.
Tokayev described a proposal to establish a state strategic uranium reserve as worthy of serious consideration, saying it could cover the needs of Kazakhstan’s nuclear power plants for the next century.
Ismailov, founder of PACE Analytics, pointed to Tokayev’s 2022 instruction to examine the construction of large oil storage facilities in the Atyrau Region. In a post on the PACE Analytics channel, Ismailov said the Energy Ministry and KazMunayGas national oil company subsequently deemed the project economically unjustified, favoring greater flexibility in oil export routes instead.
He questioned whether a similar argument could eventually be used against the proposed uranium reserve.
The concern comes as Kazakhstan seeks to expand nuclear power generation. In his address. Tokayev suggested considering beginning the construction of the Balkhash nuclear power plant next year and accelerate the agreement on the development of the second plant.
Social justice
Political analyst Gaziz Abishev identified social justice as another central theme of the address, highlighting the president’s proposals to reconsider the distribution of social benefits and increase the tax burden on wealthy citizens.
In a comment on his Telegram channel, Abishev said that Kazakhstan faces growing pressure to balance social expectations with limited budget resources.
He suggested that declining returns from oil revenues and fiscal constraints make reductions in some government expenditures unavoidable. In his view, the priority should be ensuring that assistance reaches citizens who genuinely depend on state support.
Tokayev instructed officials to thoroughly examine changes to the social assistance system, test new approaches through pilot projects and assess their effectiveness before expanding them nationwide.
Abishev also supported the proposal to consider higher tax rates for wealthy individuals, describing progressive taxation as an established practice in many countries, including France and Germany. He said Tokayev had raised this issue back in 2019.
“Kazakhstan’s market economy allows people to monetize their talents, their labor, and their initial social status. This is not the case everywhere. Even in many liberal countries, high incomes are taxed at extremely high rates,” he added.
Human capital development
Anastasiya Matyukh at the Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development also drew attention to education, human capital development and social responsibility in ensuring the success of economic reforms.
Matyukh stressed that Kazakhstan’s modernizing economy requires more than technically qualified specialists. It also needs people capable of critical thinking, adapting to new technologies, taking initiative and assuming responsibility for their decisions.
She described education, professional development and the cultivation of civic values as strategic investments in the country’s long-term competitiveness.
Reflecting on Tokayev’s call for a new public ethic, Matyukh emphasised that institutional reforms and technological advances alone cannot fully improve living standards without corresponding changes in social behavior.
