ASTANA – Kazakhstan recorded a $2.4 billion current account surplus in the first half of 2026, equivalent to 1.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), reversing a $3.6 billion deficit in the same period last year, as export growth outpaced imports, according to the National Bank.
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The improvement follows a $13.1 billion current account deficit in 2025. The current account had been in deficit in nine of the 10 years from 2016 to 2025, averaging around 2.7% of GDP annually. The balance improved by nearly $6 billion year on year, with the strongest contribution coming in the second quarter, when the surplus reached $3.2 billion.
What the surplus means for Kazakhstan
The current account records a country’s transactions with the rest of the world, including trade in goods and services, investment income and current transfers. A surplus means that receipts from these transactions exceed payments abroad. For Kazakhstan, the shift into surplus reduces the economy’s reliance on external financing to cover current international payments. Stronger export receipts can also support the supply of foreign currency and create conditions for accumulating external assets.
Historically, Kazakhstan’s goods trade has generated a surplus, but payments of income to foreign investors have often offset a significant share of it. The current account last recorded a substantial surplus in 2022, reaching $6.4 billion, before returning to deficit in subsequent years.
Export growth drives external balance
A key factor behind the improvement was the expansion of Kazakhstan’s trade surplus. In the first half of 2026, the surplus in goods trade more than doubled, from $7.7 billion to $16.2 billion.
Exports of goods, measured using the National Bank’s balance-of-payments methodology, rose 27.1% to $48.5 billion. Growth was recorded across more than 80% of commodity categories.
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, exports of copper and copper cathodes increased 58%, copper ores and concentrates rose 42.9%, uranium grew 15.1% and wheat increased 28.2%. Sulfur exports nearly tripled, while silver exports more than doubled.
The positive trend continued over the first seven months of the year. Goods exports increased 15.8% to $50.9 billion, while the foreign trade surplus reached $14 billion, up $5.4 billion from the same period in 2025.
Non-commodity exports also expanded amid growth in manufacturing output. They rose 19.5% to $18.6 billion, while manufacturing production increased 9% over the period.
Agricultural exports grew 34.8%, from $3.7 billion to $5 billion. Key contributors included wheat, up 25.5%, sunflower oil, up 49.1%, animal feed, up 68.2%, flax seeds, which more than doubled, and flour, up 37.1%. These products accounted for nearly 60% of agricultural exports.
Imports shift toward production and investment
Imports also increased, but at a considerably slower pace than exports. Under the National Bank’s balance-of-payments methodology, goods imports rose 6.2% to $32.3 billion in the first half of 2026.
The composition of imports changed, with higher purchases of production inputs and equipment alongside a decline in consumer goods. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, imports increased 5.5% to $31.5 billion. Intermediate goods accounted for 47.6% of the total, with imports in this category rising 14% to $15 billion.
Imports of investment goods increased 10.6% to $8.1 billion. Purchases of electricity-generating units rose 83%, machinery for lifting and handling goods increased 70.1%, and equipment for sorting and crushing soil more than doubled.
Intermediate goods imports also grew, including natural gas, up 96.3%, turbojet engines and gas turbines, up 2.7 times; petroleum products, up 41.6%, uranium, up 2.6 times, and gold, up sixfold.
The increase in equipment purchases coincided with higher investment in fixed capital, which grew 9.6% in real terms to 9.5 trillion tenge (US$21.2 billion). Investment in manufacturing rose 33.3% to 1.43 trillion tenge (US$3.2 billion), accounting for 15% of total fixed-capital investment.
Manufacturing output increased 9.8%, while machinery production grew 23.1% and chemical industry output rose 20.7%.
The figures suggest that part of the import growth is linked to the construction of new facilities, the expansion of existing production and technological upgrades. The economic returns from these investments will depend on the capacity being brought into operation and its contribution to domestic production.
Consumer imports decline
In contrast to purchases of equipment and production inputs, imports of consumer goods declined. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, consumer goods imports fell 10.5% to $8.3 billion in the first half of 2026. Imports of passenger cars decreased 21.9%, pharmaceuticals fell 18.7%, suitcases and bags dropped 49.4%, women’s textile clothing declined 38.9%, and air conditioners fell 34.3%.
The National Bank reported that imports of non-food consumer goods had been declining for 11 consecutive quarters, beginning in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The decline in passenger car imports coincided with an increase in domestic production. From January to June, Kazakhstan produced 88,886 passenger cars, up 37.2% year on year, while sales in the official dealership segment remained stable. This points to partial import substitution through domestic vehicle assembly.
