ASTANA — Leaders of the five Caspian states are set to meet Oct. 9 in Turkmenistan’s Avaza National Tourist Zone for a summit focused on the sea’s mounting environmental challenges, as declining water levels increasingly intersect with transport, infrastructure and regional economic interests.
The Caspian Environmental Summit comes amid efforts to turn years of scientific warnings and regional dialogue into coordinated policies. Experts say its significance will depend not only on the issues leaders raise, but on whether the meeting strengthens mechanisms for monitoring, adaptation and cooperation among Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan.
The summit is part of a broader series of high-level events in Avaza on Oct. 7-9, including meetings of Caspian states’ environmental ministers, the heads of state of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Heads of State.
Falling waters raise the political stakes
The scale of the Caspian’s decline is already visible along Kazakhstan’s coast.
In a comment for this story, Zamira Zholdaskyzy, a chief expert at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS), said observations by Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan’s national hydrometeorological service, show the sea level fell by 1.76 meters between 2005 and 2022, while its water surface contracted by more than 26,000 square kilometers. Approximately half of the lost area was in Kazakhstan’s part of the Northern Caspian, where the shoreline retreated by more than 25 kilometers in some areas.
Zamira Zholdaskyzy, chief expert at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS). Photo credit: Zholdaskyzy’s personal archives
“The central issues on the shared environmental agenda of the Caspian states are changes in the sea level, biodiversity conservation, the quality of the marine environment and the condition of coastal areas. These issues are closely interconnected, as changes in the water balance affect the coastline and natural habitats, as well as the operation of ports, water intakes and other infrastructure. Of particular importance is the conservation of the Caspian seal, sturgeon and wetlands that support the sea’s biodiversity,” Zholdaskyzy told The Astana Times.
Scientists attribute the decline to a combination of factors. Zholdaskyzy said research cited by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank points to increased evaporation amid rising air and water temperatures as the leading contributor in recent decades, alongside changes in precipitation and river flows.
The Volga accounts for approximately 80% of river inflow into the Caspian, while irrigation, industrial use and municipal water consumption across the wider basin also affect the amount reaching the sea.
The uncertainty surrounding the relative contribution of these factors makes shared monitoring particularly important.
“Climate trends cannot be changed through the efforts of one region alone. At the same time, the Caspian states can achieve tangible results in water use and scientific cooperation. This includes joint monitoring, improving water-use efficiency, particularly in agriculture, coordinating water releases during spawning periods and conducting joint risk assessments,” said Zholdaskyzy.
Kazakhstan has also sought to elevate the issue politically. At the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana on April 22, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said Kazakhstan had initiated an interstate program aimed at preventing further degradation of the Caspian and established a dedicated research institute to strengthen regional scientific cooperation.
The following day, a high-level dialogue under the Tehran Convention, the legally binding environmental agreement among all five littoral states, focused specifically on sea-level fluctuations. The Caspian Sea Level Fluctuation Action Plan for 2026-2036 was introduced during the meeting, with participants discussing financing, scientific cooperation and implementation.
From environmental problem to strategic risk
The decision to bring the issue to the level of heads of state reflects how far its implications now extend beyond environmental policy, according to Kamila Amurtayeva, an expert consultant at the Center for Institutional Analysis and Reforms at the Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development (KIPD).
Kamila Amurtayeva, expert consultant at the Center for Institutional Analysis and Reforms at the Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development (KIPD). Photo credit: Amurtayeva’s personal archives
“Declining sea levels affect ecosystems, fisheries, coastal infrastructure and economic activity simultaneously. These impacts have already been documented in materials published by the Tehran Convention Secretariat. Addressing them therefore requires decisions that extend beyond the remit of environmental agencies,” Amurtayeva told The Astana Times.
She said the Avaza meeting also builds on broader diplomatic efforts, including Turkmenistan’s Caspian Environmental Initiative, proposed in 2023 as an international platform for cooperation on protecting the Caspian environment and the 2026-2036 action plan addressing sea-level fluctuations.
“The Caspian’s political significance is growing because environmental sustainability is becoming a prerequisite for implementing national economic and strategic plans. Declining sea levels constitute a shared risk that has been raised repeatedly, but their consequences and countries’ capacities to adapt differ. Reconciling these interests requires the involvement of national leaders,” she said.
Those interests are particularly visible in transport. According to data published by the Kazakh government in September, freight volumes along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, increased 5.6-fold over the past five years, from 800,000 tons to 4.5 million tons. Kazakhstan plans to expand the combined capacity of its seaports from 21.8 million tons to 30 million tons by 2030, while dredging, berth reconstruction and fleet expansion are underway.
The expansion increases the importance of navigational conditions and coastal adaptation for Kazakhstan’s transport plans.
“States are investing in connectivity, but the returns on those investments depend on navigational conditions. In my view, environmental discussions will therefore also involve the costs of adapting ports, the resilience of freight operations and the coordination of infrastructure decisions,” said Amurtayeva, noting that the challenge concerns both the TITR and the North-South corridor.
Energy adds another dimension. According to Amurtayeva, environmental safety in hydrocarbon production and transportation, accident prevention and marine protection could form part of the broader discussion, although she said an environmental summit should not be expected to produce agreement on major energy projects.
“Its strategic value may lie in agreeing on rules that allow transport and energy development to proceed while taking shared environmental constraints into account,” she said.
Existing institutions face an implementation test
The Tehran Convention provides an existing framework for regional environmental cooperation, with protocols covering biodiversity, land-based pollution, oil-spill response and transboundary environmental impact assessment. A further protocol on monitoring, assessment and information exchange remains under negotiation, putting the focus on strengthening existing mechanisms for coordinated action.
“The practical question is therefore how to equip existing frameworks with adequate resources, authority and sustained data exchange. (…) Promising steps could include a joint monitoring program, harmonised measurement and forecasting methods, regular joint research expeditions, and coordination of adaptation measures across government agencies. Data comparability is particularly important,” said Amurtayeva.
“Without it, countries may struggle to agree even on a baseline assessment of risks, let alone funding priorities,” she added.
Amurtayeva also pointed to the Blueing the Caspian Sea project as an example of existing cooperation. She said the four-year, $11.7 million project, launched in April and funded by the Global Environment Facility with participation from the United Nations Environment Program and the World Bank, supports Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in areas including pollution monitoring and biodiversity conservation.
“It should be understood specifically as a project supporting three countries; comprehensive coordination among all five Caspian states remains a separate task,” said Amurtayeva.
Kazakhstan is also developing its own scientific capacity to support regional cooperation.
“The Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea conducts observations of the marine environment, while its participation in the association of scientific organizations of the Caspian states expands opportunities for exchanging knowledge and research findings,” said Zholdaskyzy.
What would make Avaza consequential?
When asked what concrete outcomes could indicate progress after the Avaza summit, Amurtayeva highlighted a common plan with clear deadlines, designated agencies and identified financing, alongside arrangements for data exchange, joint research and coastal infrastructure adaptation.
“The summit’s substantive significance will become clear from the extent to which the leaders’ agreements shape subsequent joint action. (…) I would therefore pay particular attention to the follow-up after Avaza: who will coordinate implementation, when the countries will review progress, and whether the results will be made publicly available,” she said.
Another indicator would be whether shared environmental assessments begin to influence economic decisions, including port development, infrastructure location and coastal protection.
“For the Caspian, it is particularly important that economic planning draw on shared scientific assessments of changes in the marine environment,” she said.
“A realistic measure of success will be the five states’ ability to assess risks jointly, coordinate measures and finance adaptation. Any promises to restore sea levels rapidly would require separate scientific substantiation,” Amurtayeva said.
