ASTANA – The Kazakh government has three scenarios – optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic – in case of a further decline in oil prices, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said at an April 9 briefing in the Mazhilis, a lower house of Parliament, reported Zakon.kz.
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Kazakhstan’s budget is mainly formed by oil revenues. With Brent crude prices approaching the pessimistic scenario of $60 per barrel, Zhumangarin outlined potential budget cuts. However, a 90-day suspension of new United States tariffs, excluding China, has led to a slight recovery in oil prices.
He also noted that U.S. tariffs on certain Kazakh goods — including rates as high as 54% — are expected to have minimal impact on the country’s economy. The new duties apply to just 4.8% of Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S., valued at nearly $100 million.
“To be honest, they will not affect anything, if you take them all together. Of the almost $2 billion in turnover, the majority is currently an exception. Raw materials such as oil, uranium, silver, and high-carbon ferro alloys are exempt, and what has been subject to duties today is a very small share,” he said.
He added that initial consultations with the U.S. are ongoing, and a working group will soon be established. Meanwhile, dialogue to protect national interests is being conducted through the Kazakh Embassy in the U.S., negotiations, and other World Trade Organization instruments.
The government is also calculating budget responses for oil falling to $55 or $50 per barrel. Zhumangarin emphasized that Kazakhstan needs to be ready even if oil prices do not decline.
The country has successfully navigated numerous crises in the past, and now it should prioritize infrastructure development and job creation. Additionally, he underscored the critical role of the National Fund during crises, designed precisely for such situations.
