ASTANA – The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided on Nov. 29 to increase the base rate to 15.25% per annum with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point.
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The NBK’s press service reported that the decision was made taking into account updated forecasts and an assessment of the balance of inflation risks.
The NBK highlighted easing monetary conditions due to a weaker exchange rate, reduced real interest rates caused by higher inflation, and revised inflation forecasts for upcoming years. Combined with increased market volatility, particularly in financial and energy sectors, this has necessitated an increase in the policy rate.
NBK Governor Timur Suleimenov noted that annual inflation rose to 8.5% in October, up from 8.3% in September, after a long period of slowdown mostly due to rising costs for paid services. Inflation expectations for the next year have climbed to 12.5%. External factors, such as rising global food prices and high inflation in Russia, are intensifying inflationary pressures.
The NBK revised its inflation forecast for 2024 to 8-9%, expecting rates at 6.5-8.5% in 2025 and 5.5-7.5% in 2026. The bank anticipates inflation to meet the target of 5% by the end of 2027 with a moderately tight monetary policy.
Kazakhstan’s economic growth forecast for 2024 has also been revised to a range of 4.0-4.5%.
