ASTANA – The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced plans to reduce the base rate by 25 basis points to 14.50% per annum, with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, reported the bank’s press service on May 31.
National Bank of Kazakhstan building. Photo credit: kapital.kz
Annual inflation slowed to 8.7% in April, aligning with the forecast trajectory. However, inflation expectations rose after two months of decline due to changes in food prices, influenced by a flood situation and ongoing reforms in housing and communal services.
The external inflationary background is assessed as neutral, reflecting the impact of the contractionary policies by central banks and price dynamics in global food markets.
The baseline scenario assumes an upward revision in Brent oil prices to an average of $85 per barrel in 2024, driven by an extension of OPEC+ production cuts, stable U.S. production, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
In the medium term, oil prices are expected to gradually decline as oil production increases and considering forecasts for global economic development. The average price is projected to be $80 in 2025 and $77 in 2026.
The inflation forecast for 2024 remains in the range of 7.5-9.5%, and for 2025, it is set at 5.5-7.5%. In 2026, as fiscal stimulus eases and moderately tight monetary conditions take full effect, inflation is expected to approach the 5% target, staying within the 5-6% range.
The forecast for Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2024 has been maintained at 3.5-4.5%, supported by an increase in consumer lending, investment activity in the non-oil sector, and growth in real incomes of the population due to fiscal stimulus.
Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised, influenced by the postponement of the commissioning of the Tengizchevroil expansion project to the second half of 2025. Economic growth expectations for 2025 have been reduced to 4.8-5.8%, while for 2026, they have been increased to 4.9-5.9%.
“Our main task is to achieve the established inflation target of 5% in the medium term. This requires maintaining a moderately tight monetary policy for an extended period to consolidate the progress made in slowing down inflationary processes,” commented NBK Governor Timur Suleimenov.
