ASTANA – Airlines are expected to spend around $350 billion on fuel this year, nearly one-third of their operating costs, as global industry profitability comes under pressure from higher energy prices. For carriers in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, these figures are increasing the importance of data-driven operations to find additional fuel savings.
Photo credit: IATA
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global airline profitability is expected to fall to around 2% this year, down from 4.2% in 2025. IATA also reported that 90% of airlines surveyed in March identified fuel efficiency as a priority, rising to 96% among finance and procurement executives.
The pressure is particularly relevant for airlines in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, where passenger and cargo markets are expanding while fuel remains a major operating cost.
Fleet renewal is only part of the solution
Airlines have traditionally improved fuel efficiency by replacing older aircraft with newer models.
Air Astana received eight Airbus A320-family aircraft in 2025 and retired three Embraer E2 aircraft, while Azerbaijan Airlines has continued adding Airbus A320neo aircraft. Uzbekistan Airways is also introducing Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321neo aircraft.
New-generation aircraft can significantly reduce fuel consumption, but airlines are increasingly looking for additional operational savings.
Stuart Fox, IATA’s Director of Flight and Operations, said the next fuel savings are increasingly likely to come from “better operational decisions supported by data.” He pointed to benchmarking as a way for airlines to compare their performance with operators using similar aircraft on comparable routes.
Turning data into fuel savings
IATA uses operational information from more than 240 airlines to identify efficiency opportunities. Its Fuel Efficiency Gap Analysis (FEGA) service and FuelIS platform allow carriers to compare fuel performance by aircraft type, route, flight stage and geographic region.
The approach can reveal, for example, when an airline consistently lands with higher fuel reserves than comparable operators, identifying potential efficiency gains without compromising safety.
Air Astana has already applied artificial intelligence to fuel management and estimates that the technology can reduce fuel consumption by up to 2%.
Beyond the aircraft
Fuel efficiency also depends on the wider aviation system. Flight paths, airspace design and air traffic management can create additional fuel consumption even when an aircraft itself is operating efficiently.
IATA has implemented Performance-based Navigation (PBN) projects in Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over the past six years. The projects have supported more efficient airspace design and improved operational performance.
For Central Asian and South Caucasus airlines, the data suggests that the next stage of fuel efficiency will not depend only on buying newer aircraft. Better use of operational data, benchmarking and more efficient airspace could provide another source of savings as regional aviation markets continue to grow.
This also raises the broader question of how Kazakhstan can turn its growing role in international aviation into greater economic value. As financial analyst Rassul Rysmambetov told The Astana Times, “the aviation hub is not simply the transportation of someone else’s cargo through Kazakhstan with refueling,” highlighting the need to create value beyond transit itself.
